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Report of the Board of Governors 2008INTERNATIONAL background to the danish economyGrowth in the global economy declined significantly in 2008. The decline was particularly strong towards the end of the year following a substantial deterioration of the financial crisis that resulted in negative growth in the major industrialised countries. International economic organisations expect that output in the industrialised countries will decline overall in 2009, and that a gradual reversal will not occur until the end of 2009 at the earliest. As a result, many countries have eased both monetary and fiscal policy considerably. The financial crisis that began in the summer of 2007 was initially a liquidity crisis that caused participants in the financial markets to show restraint in lending to each other. During 2008, in an attempt to loosen up the tight money markets, the central banks of several countries expanded their lending facilities, increased the number of counterparties, accepted a wider range of eligible collateral, and increased the maturity of loans. Efforts were made to remedy dollar liquidity shortfalls outside the USA through bilateral agreements between the Federal Reserve and a number of central banks, including the European Central Bank, ECB. In the course of the year it became clear that the losses of several of the world's major financial enterprises were so severe that both their solvency and the overall financial stability were at risk. In September, the investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and global confidence in the financial system plummeted as a result. In many countries the authorities had to rapidly implement massive rescue packages guaranteeing loans and deposits and injecting government capital into financial enterprises to mitigate the drop in confidence and ensure capacity for new lending in the financial system. Energy and food prices rose in the 1st half of the year but fell back substantially as the global economy slowed down. At year-end, the price of oil had fallen to 36 dollars per barrel from 94 dollars at the beginning of the year and more than 140 dollars in July. In the USA and the euro area annual consumer price inflation peaked during the summer, reaching 5.6 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively, followed by a significant decline. In July the ECB raised its policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4.25 per cent based on elevated inflation expectations, but then lowered the rate on three occasions in the autumn, by a total of 1.75 percentage points to 2.5 per cent at the close of the year. The Federal Reserve eased its monetary policy considerably in 2008. The fed funds target rate was cut seven times during the year to 0.25 per cent, down 4 percentage points in total. Interest-rate reductions totalling 2.25 percentage points in the 1st half of the year reflected a downturn in the US economy due, among other reasons, to a very weak housing market. As a result of the international financial crisis, policy rates were lowered by 0.5 percentage points in the first coordinated action ever between the central banks of Canada, the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden and the USA. However, tighter lending conditions generally meant that the rate cuts were not fully passed through to consumers and business enterprises. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond fell from 3.9 per cent at the beginning of 2008 to 2.2 per cent at the end of 2008. In Germany, the yield decreased from 4.2 per cent at the beginning of the year to 3.0 per cent at the end of the year. In both Germany and the US these yields increased during the spring as a result of growing fears of persistently higher inflation. In the 2nd half of the year yields declined following relaxation of monetary policies, poorer growth prospects and the financial crisis. The foreign-exchange markets were characterised by substantial exchange-rate fluctuations in 2008. In the spring, the dollar fell considerably to just under 1.60 dollars per euro, which is the lowest level in recent times. Subsequently the dollar strengthened again to 1.40 dollars per euro at the end of the year, corresponding to a decline of 4 per cent against the euro compared to the beginning of the year. The pound sterling reached an all-time low against the euro, standing at 0.96 pound sterling per euro at the turn of the year. The financial crisis put several smaller currencies under pressure in the autumn. The Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone depreciated to historically low levels against the euro from September onwards. The danish economyAfter a number of years with a sustained upswing, the Danish economy also shifted to a lower gear in 2008. Total output fell by 1.3 per cent compared to 2007, cf. Table 1, making 2008 the first year with negative growth since 1993. The slowdown was originally caused by a lack of spare capacity but was exacerbated by the financial crisis and the weaker international economy. The economic downturn worsened in the 4th quarter as the financial turmoil intensified. Despite the decline in GDP, the considerable pressure on the labour market continued, especially in the 1st half of the year. In August, unemployment had declined to 47,200 persons or 1.7 per cent of the labour force, which is the lowest unemployment rate since the early 1970s. Extensive pressure on the labour market meant that many industries, as well as the public sector, had difficulties in recruiting the required labour. The pressure on the labour market began to ease towards the end of the year. At the close of the year, unemployment had risen to 2.1 per cent.
The rate of wage increase rose in the 1st half of the year and then started to fall back as the economic outlook deteriorated. For the private sector as a whole, the annual rate of wage increase was 4.2 per cent in the 4th quarter of 2008, down from 4.5 per cent in the same quarter of 2007. The rate of wage increase was higher than in other countries throughout 2007. Inflation was 2.4 per cent year-on-year in December measured by the increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP. Inflation increased in the 1st half of the year and then began to decline. Price developments over the year were driven mainly by the strong fluctuations in energy and food prices. Domestic market-determined inflation rose over the year and was 2.4 per cent in December. Growth in domestic demand decreased in 2008. Private consumption growth slowed significantly, which should be viewed in the light of factors such as weakening consumer confidence and the dampening of the housing market. Retail and car sales declined over the year. The housing market weakened considerably with reduced prices and fewer transactions. In addition, there was a significant increase in the time on market. Business investment fell in 2008, reflecting weaker sales opportunities. In addition, the financial enterprises tightened their credit standards. The tightening primarily comprised interest-rate increases and more rigorous collateral requirements. The current-account surplus increased to kr. 31.2 billion in 2008 against kr. 12.0 billion in 2007. The improvement reflects that the surplus on trade in services has remained high, while the last few years' pronounced deterioration of the surplus on trade in goods has ceased. In addition, the surplus on investment income increased substantially. At end-2008 the nominal effective krone rate was significantly higher than at the beginning of the year. In combination with the relatively high rate of wage increase, this had an adverse impact on competitiveness. The government surplus fell to 3.0 per cent of GDP in 2008 against 4.5 per cent of GDP in 2007. The fall was primarily due to lower income taxes and falling proceeds from the taxation of pension yields. Public consumption and investment went up by 0.6 per cent. In overall terms fiscal policy was moderately expansionary. monetary and foreign-exchange policyDanish monetary and foreign-exchange policy is aimed at keeping the krone stable vis-à-vis the euro. Due to the euro area's low-inflation policy, this creates a framework for low and stable inflation in Denmark. The formal framework for Denmark's fixed-exchange-rate policy is the Exchange Rate Mechanism, ERM II. Denmark participates with a central rate of kr. 7.46038 per euro and a fluctuation band of +/- 2.25 per cent in relation to the central rate, cf. Chart 1. The fixed-exchange-rate policy means that the monetary-policy interest rates are used solely to keep the krone close to its central rate. At the beginning of 2008 Danmarks Nationalbank purchased foreign exchange for kr. 8 billion. The krone weakened a little in the following months and was slightly weaker than the central rate against the euro at the end of April and the beginning of May. This could be attributed to the narrowing of the short-term yield spread to the euro area in the light of the turbulence in the money markets that drove up the ECB's marginal rate. To stabilise the krone, Danmarks Nationalbank intervened in the foreign-exchange market for around kr. 20 billion in April and May, and the lending rate and the rate of interest on certificates of deposit were raised from 4.25 per cent to 4.35 per cent on 16 May. The discount and current-account rates remained unchanged at 4 per cent.
The Danish krone was stable in June, July and August, and Danmarks Nationalbank did not intervene in the foreign-exchange market. On 3 July, Danmarks Nationalbank followed the ECB by raising the monetary-policy interest rates by 0.25 percentage points effective from 4 July. The ECB motivated the interest decision by increasing risk of higher inflation. The international financial crisis escalated in September and October and the Danish krone came under pressure. The pressure on the krone followed a period in which the spread between Danmarks Nationalbank's lending rate and the ECB's marginal rate had been negative. To mitigate the pressure, Danmarks Nationalbank intervened in the foreign-exchange market, purchasing kroner against foreign exchange for a considerable amount from late September to early October. However, this proved insufficient to withstand the pressure on the krone, and Danmarks Nationalbank raised its monetary-policy interest rates, effective from 8 October. The lending rate and the rate of interest on certificates of deposit were raised by 0.4 percentage points to 5 per cent, and the discount rate and the current-account rate were raised by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5 per cent. Danmarks Nationalbank subsequently continued to intervene in the foreign-exchange market to stabilise the krone. On 8 October, the ECB announced a reduction of the minimum bid rate by 0.5 percentage points to 3.75 per cent. On the same day, the ECB also announced that, until further notice, the weekly main refinancing operations would be carried out at a fixed rate, corresponding to the minimum bid rate, whereas they had previously been carried out at a variable marginal rate that could be at least the minimum bid rate. This meant a widening of the monetary-policy interest-rate spread between Denmark and the euro area to 1.25 percentage points. The outflow of foreign exchange continued after a pause, however, as the mounting financial crisis caused investors to withdraw from smaller currencies. At the end of October, Danmarks Nationalbank intervened again to stabilise the krone, bringing the total intervention purchases of kroner in September and October to kr. 65 billion. On 24 October, Danmarks Nationalbank raised the lending rate and the rate of interest on certificates of deposit by a further 0.5 percentage points, thus widening the spread between Danmarks Nationalbank's lending rate and the ECB's interest rate to 1,75 percentage points. From the end of October, the krone strengthened and Danmarks Nationalbank was able to repurchase foreign exchange. On 6 November, Danmarks Nationalbank, mirroring the ECB, cut its monetary-policy interest rates by 0.5 percentage points effective from 7 November. On 4 December, the ECB announced a reduction of the interest rate by 0.75 percentage points. Danmarks Nationalbank cut its lending rate and the rate of interest on certificates of deposit by 0.75 percentage points to 4.25 per cent and lowered the discount and current-account rates by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5 per cent, effective from 5 December. On 19 December, Danmarks Nationalbank unilaterally cut the lending rate and the rate of interest on certificates of deposit by 0.5 percentage points to 3.75 per cent in light of the development in the foreign-exchange market, where it had been purchasing foreign exchange for a period of time. The discount and current-account rates remained unchanged at 3.5 per cent. The spread between Danmarks Nationalbank's lending rate and the ECB's interest rate was subsequently 1.25 percentage points. In November and December, Danmarks Nationalbank purchased foreign exchange in the market for kr. 56 billion. In 2008, Danmarks Nationalbank sold foreign exchange net for approximately kr. 20 billion in connection with intervention, cf. Table 2. In the same period, the foreign-exchange reserve increased by kr. 44 billion to kr. 212 billion at the close of 2008. On Danmarks Nationalbank's initiative, the central government raised foreign loans of kr. 64 billion in order to strengthen the foreign-exchange reserve against the backdrop of the substantial outflow of foreign exchange in the autumn. The central government's foreign debt is raised in the interest of the foreign-exchange reserve, and the equivalent amount in kroner is credited to the central government's account at Danmarks Nationalbank and is not available for other purposes.
The central government's domestic debt exceeded the domestic financing requirement by just over kr. 100 billion, mainly as a result of the issuance of 30-year government bonds for around kr. 90 billion. The central government plans to use the overfinancing in 2008, which is deposited in its account at Danmarks Nationalbank, to finance the credit package of up to kr. 100 billion for Danish banks and mortgage-credit institutes in 2009, cf. page 17. The money market To restore confidence in the financial markets, western governments began to announce bank rescue packages towards the end of September. The Danish Act on Financial Stability, which ensures that all claims of depositors and other unsecured creditors are fully covered was adopted in early October, cf. page 17. Due to the difficult financing conditions in 2008, there was a tendency for a larger group of financial institutions to raise loans from Danmarks Nationalbank. Viewed over the full year 2008, banks and mortgage-credit institutes increased their borrowing from Danmarks Nationalbank. The net position of the banks and mortgage-credit institutes vis-à-vis Danmarks Nationalbank was reduced by kr. 106 billion in 2008, cf. Table 2. The lower net position was reflected in a reduction of the holdings of certificates of deposit by kr. 82 billion and an increase in monetary-policy loans in kroner by kr. 24 billion. Furthermore, the banks and mortgage-credit institutes raised loans in foreign currency from Danmarks Nationalbank under the swap lines established. At the end of December, the financial institutions had raised loans in foreign currency for kr. 108 billion. Bank interest rates and bond yields The Danish bond markets were also affected by the financial turmoil in 2008. Yields on mortgage-credit bonds rose significantly in September and October, and the spread to government bond yields widened considerably. The mortgage-credit bond yields subsequently fell again, e.g. as a consequence of the announcement on 31 October 2008 of the agreement on financial stability in the pension area in Denmark, cf. page 17. The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased from approximately 4.5 per cent at the beginning of 2008 to approximately 3.3 per cent at year-end. The yield spread to equivalent German government bonds was fairly stable at around 0.25 percentage points from March to September and then widened to around 0.4 percentage points at the end of the year. Other European countries experienced an even further widening of the yield spread to Germany. The domestic financial systemFinancial stability Roskilde Bank On 27 November, the Finance Committee of the Folketing (Danish parliament) approved a government guarantee protecting Danmarks Nationalbank against any losses in connection with the acquisition and winding up of Roskilde Bank. EBH Bank Amagerbanken Political agreement on financial stability Political agreement on financial stability in the pension sector Act on State-Funded Capital Injections (Credit Package) Danmarks Nationalbank's temporary measures Banks During 2008, nine Danish banks were wound up, merged with or were taken over by other banks. Mortgage-credit institutes Basel II Under Basel II, the credit institutions must calculate individual capital needs on the basis of their aggregate risks. The capital needs are not published, but are reported to the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority, which may order individual institutions to increase their capital needs. Recommendations of the Financial Stability Forum Payment systems Settlement of payments via accounts at Danmarks Nationalbank continued to grow in 2008 in terms of both the number of payments and their value. In 2008 there were 793,859 payments totalling kr. 78,799 billion in value. On some days, the financial turmoil led to record numbers of foreign-exchange transactions for settlement via the international currency settlement system CLS. It has been possible to settle payments related to credit derivatives via CLS since November 2007, but the volume is still low. However, the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the problems experienced by the US mortgage institutes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac led to an increase in payment settlement via CLS. These transactions were settled via the normal procedure without causing any capacity problems. Oversight The Sumclearing Danmarks Nationalbank follows the sector's discussions on how to modernise the retail payments infrastructure. Securities settlement VP Securities A/S (VP) has set up a central securities depository in Luxembourg, VP Lux S.à r.l., with a view to giving Danish banks and mortgage-credit institutes access to issue euro-denominated bonds from a euro area member state. This means that the bonds can be pledged as collateral to central banks in the euro area. On 18 December 2008, the Governing Council of the ECB approved VP Lux under the euro area standards for central securities depositories. The Payment Services Directive and SEPA The Directive is the legal foundation for the efforts by European banks to establish a Single Euro Payments Area, SEPA. Denmark will be part of SEPA, and since January 2008 Danish banks have offered their customers the option to conduct cross-border transfers using the new SEPA Credit Transfers product. Target2 and Target2-Securities Due to an increase in cross-border securities trading, the Eurosystem is in the process of setting up a single European platform for securities settlement, Target2-Securities. VP has indicated that it wants to use Target2-Securities for the settlement of securities transactions in both kroner and euro. Target2-Securities is expected to be operational from 2013. Fixing of swap reference rates International monetary cooperationEnlargement of the euro area The International Monetary Fund Towards the end of 2008, the global financial crisis brought the IMF back into focus in international economic-policy cooperation. The EU and G20 discussions of reforming the international financial system showed broad international support for the IMF as a central institution in the efforts to design a more efficient global financial architecture. The IMF introduced a new type of credit facility in October, the Short-Term Liquidity Facility, which provides large short-term financing without the normal binding economic-policy requirements. The facility is aimed primarily at emerging market economies with track records of sound policies. In the 4th quarter of 2008, following several years with a very low level of lending activity, the IMF granted very large loans to Ukraine, Hungary, Iceland, Pakistan and Latvia, among others, in support of economic adjustment programmes. Swap lines with the central banks of Iceland and Latvia banknotes and coinsIn 2008, the value of banknotes and coins in circulation fell from kr. 61.6 billion to kr. 61.3 billion. The circulation of banknotes increased from 161 million banknotes in 2007 to 162 million in 2008, i.e. an increase of 0.6 per cent. The circulation of 1,000-krone banknotes fell by 2 per cent, while the circulation of other banknotes increased by 1.2 per cent. 517 counterfeit banknotes were removed from circulation in 2008. This is a slight increase in the number compared to 2007. In an international context, counterfeiting of Danish banknotes is limited, however. New banknotes Faroe islands and Greenland Coins In connection with the encashment of the 25-øre coin, coins of many other denominations were also returned. As a result the number of coins in circulation did not increase as usual in 2008; in fact there was a decline of 187.9 million coins at a value of kr. 99.8 million. Danmarks Nationalbank continued to issue thematic coins in 2008. The second coin in the series of coins to mark the International Polar Year was issued at the beginning of the year. The series was completed in February 2009 with the issuance of the third and last coin. In the ship series three coins were issued, the motifs being M/S Selandia, the Viking longship the Sea Stallion and the Royal Yacht Dannebrog, respectively. StatisticsDanmarks Nationalbank prepared two new sets of statistics during 2008. The lending survey was first published on 13 January 2009 and will be disseminated quarterly in future. Being qualitative, it is based on statements by credit managers of the largest banks and mortgage-credit institutes on lending-policy changes. The survey contains information about factors that have influenced lending policy during the last quarter and provides a picture of the institutions' expectations of credit developments in the coming quarter. The lending survey thus supplements the existing quantitative lending statistics. The coverage of securities statistics is expanded to include information on ownership concentration in Danish securities with special focus on mortgage-credit bonds. The statistics are published by ISIN codes, showing the degree of concentration in the owner distribution of individual bond series. The statistics were published for the first time on 7 January 2009 and will be issued on a monthly basis. |
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