Danmarks Nationalbank has published its forecast for the Danish economy. After a strong 1st quarter, the gross domestic product, GDP, fell slightly in the 2nd quarter. If developments in e.g. household incomes and in the labour market are included, the outlook for the economy is more positive than GDP growth alone indicates.
"Danmarks Nationalbank expects the tentative upswing seen since 2013 to strengthen and gradually to become more self-sustaining," says Governor Lars Rohde, Danmarks Nationalbank.
In 2015, the government budget deficit is likely to be close to the limits in the EU Stability and Growth Pact and the Budget Act.
"This leaves no scope for negative surprises," says Governor Lars Rohde, adding: "At the current point in the business cycle and with the current capacity situation in the labour market, it would be desirable to have a margin to the limits for budget deficits."
Danmarks Nationalbank's projection
In Danmarks Nationalbank's new projection, growth has been revised downwards compared with the June 2014 projection. Danmarks Nationalbank projects GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in 2014, 1.7 per cent in 2015 and 2.0 per cent in 2016. Compared with the June projection, GDP growth has been revised downwards by 0.7 percentage point in 2014 and 0.1 percentage point in 2015, while the forecast for 2016 remains un-changed.
The annual increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP, is estimated at 0.4 per cent in 2014, 1.3 per cent in 2015 and 1.8 per cent in 2016. Compared with the June projection, the forecast is 0.2 percentage point lower for 2014, 0.3 percentage point lower for 2015 and unchanged for 2016.
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