Analysis

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12-09-2018

Outlook for the danish economy - Boom with no signs of imbalances

The boom in the Danish economy continues, with robust growth and rising employment. Average growth in real GDP in 2017-18 is forecast at 1.8 per cent, with similar levels the next two years. Labour market pressures are mounting, and wage growth has accelerated a little. There is room for this in the economy. In good times it is important to prepare for the period after a cyclical reversal. Fiscal policy should contribute to a continually balanced upswing and should not stimulate demand further. Dampening of growth towards the end of the boom does not call for special economic policy measures.

12-09-2018

Financial conditions are supporting the upswing

Housing and equity prices have increased significantly in recent years, while interest rates are exceptionally low. Based on a structural vector autoregressive model, these factors, combined with credit growth, are overall estimated to have contributed 0.3-0.5 percentage points per year to year-on-year GDP growth since 2016. In recent years, the contribution has been at its highest level since prior to the financial crisis in 2008. Financial conditions are expected to continue to stimulate economic growth during the 2018-20 forecast period.

10-09-2018

The labour market is slowly tightening

The Danish labour market is faced with mounting capacity pressures, but is still not showing signs of overheating. The impression, based on a broad range of indicators, is one of balanced labour market developments so far during the upswing. Viewed in isolation, a change in the demographics of the working age population has reduced the labour supply since 2008. This emphasises the need for foreign labour to support the labour demand of the upswing.

06-09-2018

Cyber resilience in the financial sector

Most of the core financial sector participants report that their levels of cyber resilience have been raised compared to 2016. A few core participants have not improved their level. That is one of the findings of a questionnaire survey conducted by Danmarks Nationalbank.

21-08-2018

MREL for mortgage banks reduces funding needs in times of crisis

Danmarks Nationalbank's calculations show that the mortgage banks' total funding need in periods of diving house prices will be smaller with an MREL than without an MREL. This is because an MREL will increase the mortgage banks' funding need in normal times, thereby ensuring that they are better prepared for periods of falling house prices and an increasing top-up collateral requirement. This will make the funding needs of the mortgage banks less sensitive to house price fluctuations.

05-07-2018

Why is nominal wage growth so low?

Nominal wage growth has been low since 2010, albeit with decent real wage growth in recent years. This also applies to Denmark’s most important export markets, e.g. Germany. A lower average replacement ratio for unemployment benefits and weak inflation have been contributing to low nominal wage growth in Denmark since 2013.

02-07-2018

Low interest rates boost bank deposits

Citizens' bank deposits have increased substantially since 2011, currently accounting for 60 per cent of GDP. This is a natural development in view of the growth of the Danish economy and the narrower spread between bond yields and bank deposit rates. This means that citizens suffer a small interest rate loss only by holding deposits with banks at low or zero interest rates rather than holding bonds.

27-06-2018

Capital requirements for banks - myths and facts

Capital requirements increase the banks' ability to absorb losses, thereby contributing to the robustness of the banking system. The first part of the analysis looks at the significance of equity capital to banks' weighted funding costs and their ability to meet increased capital requirements. The second part of the analysis describes three new requirements for the banks' composition of liabilities: the countercyclical capital buffer, the minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities, and the completion of Basel III.

19-06-2018

Central government borrowing strategy in the 2nd half of 2018

The targets for sales of government bonds and the outstanding volume of T-bills are maintained at kr. 65 billion and kr. 30 billion, respectively, in the 2nd half of 2018. The expected average sale of government bonds per auction is around kr. 2.5 billion at market value. The on-the-run issues will remain unchanged and focus will be on issuance in the 2-year and 10-year nominal bonds.

31-05-2018

Lengthy period of increasing risk appetite in parts of the banking sector

The times are good for the financial sector and the risk appetite is high. Credit standards are under pressure and have been eased for quite a while. Especially the medium-sized banks have been easing credit standards and have started gaining market shares. It is essential that the competitive pressure does not ultimately affect the risk appetite of the banking system overall. This development underscores the importance of having well-capitalised banks and of building up the countercyclical capital buffer so that the institutions have funds to mitigate the effects when the economy reverses.

31-05-2018

The largest banks are close to buffer requirements in stress test

Danmarks Nationalbank's semiannual stress test of the banking sector shows that the largest banks generally satisfy their buffer requirements in a severe recession scenario. The mortgage banking sector is for the first time included in the stress test, which now focuses on the banks' capital adequacy at the group level.

26-03-2018

Market fluctuations can have a large impact on net foreign assets

This analysis takes a closer look at how market fluctuations affect the value of the Danes' foreign assets and liabilities. There may be large capital gains or losses in the short term, but over a longer period of time accumulated gains and losses are close to zero. It is especially fluctuations in the dollar price, as well as Danish and international stock prices, which give capital gains or losses.

14-03-2018

Outlook for the Danish economy - Moderate boom in the coming years

The upswing continued in the 2nd half of 2017 and the Danish economy has entered a boom phase with mounting pressures on the labour market. The expansion has been balanced so far, partly supported by previous reforms that have increased the supply of labour. Growth in GDP is forecast at 1.9 per cent this year and slightly less in the next two years. The economy is well prepared for the boom, which may develop without the build-up of imbalances, but experience shows that the economy can overheat suddenly and violently. The government should be prepared to introduce preventive fiscal tightening with a view to dampening growth in demand if there are signs of overheating.

07-02-2018

Globalisation complicates current account interpretation

The analysis examines how globalisation can affect Denmark's current account. Globalisation implies that goods sold abroad by Danish firms to an increasing extent are completely or partially produced abroad. This complicates the interpretation of the developments in imports, exports, investment income and GDP, because they can be affected by the location of firms' head office and internal accounting structure.

08-01-2018

Prosperity growth facing demographic headwinds

The analysis contributes to the discussion of how high economic growth rates we can expect to see in the future. The analysis shows that on the domestic front the rising average life expectancy in the coming years will curb prosperity growth. However, this development can be countered by reforms which increase labour supply. We conclude that Denmark is well-prepared for the economic challenges entailed by an ageing population because Denmark has built up considerable net foreign assets and the public finances are sustainable.

15-12-2017

Central bank digital currency in Denmark?

The analysis concludes that central bank digital currency would not be an improvement of the existing payment solutions in Denmark. Central bank digital currency would fundamentally change Danmarks Nationalbank’s role in the financial system and make it a direct competitor to the commercial banks. The introduction would also lead to risks of financial instability. The potential benefits of introducing central bank digital currency for households and businesses in Denmark would not match the considerable challenges which this introduction would present. Danmarks Nationalbank therefore has no plans to issue central bank digital currency.

14-12-2017

Central government borrowing strategy in 2018

The target for sales of domestic government bonds and T-bills in 2018 is kr. 65 billion and kr. 30 billion, respectively. This is unchanged from 2017. In 2018, a new index-linked bond will be opened, maturing in 2030. The focus will be on issuance in the existing 2-year and 10-year nominal bonds and in the new index-linked bond.

14-12-2017

New primary dealer model continues in 2018

The central government's primary dealer model with enhanced requirements and payments has strengthened the market for Danish government securities. That is the background for maintaining the model with payments in 2018. The model has contributed to a more liquid market for government securities and hence to lower financing costs for the central government. Liquidity has been increased through narrower bid-ask spreads and a higher number of banks actively trading Danish government securities.

14-12-2017

Resolution strategy for SIFI groups

This analysis supports Danmarks Nationalbank's recommendation that the principles for resolution of SIFI groups should be set to resolve the SIFIs as single entities in group strategies. The analysis also examines what the strategy means in relation to the special act on mortgage banks and the setting of requirements for eligible liabilities in the systemically important groups.

13-12-2017

The central government will buy the bonds to finance social housing in 2018

When the 2018 Finance Act has been adopted, the central government will buy bonds to finance social housing. The central government expects to purchase bonds for kr. 42.5 billion in 2018. The bond purchases will be financed by issuance of government securities or by drawing on the central government's account. This results in the cheapest possible financing of social housing and the largest saving for the central government.

12-12-2017

Danish households opt out of cash payments

Danes prefer digital payment solutions to cash. Digital payment solutions are chosen by the youngest Danes in particular, and many young Danes carry little or no cash. Thus, many Danes live more or less without using cash, and even more Danes are expected to live without using cash in the future. However, Denmark is not heading for a cashless society. Citizens who wish to hold cash will still have the option to do so in the future.

29-11-2017

Risks are building up in the financial sector

There is a sentiment of optimism in the financial sector. Profits of the credit institutions are rising, and a considerable lending capacity has been built up. This increases credit institutions’ risk appetite, which is reflected in easing of credit standards. Several credit institutions are increasing lending to cyclical industries and to vulnerable households with high debt ratios. At the same time, rising house prices mean that credit growth may take off suddenly.

29-11-2017

A few banks have capital shortfall in severe recession scenario

Danmarks Nationalbank's semiannual stress test of the banking sector shows that the largest banks are close to, and in some cases tap into, their buffer requirements in a severe recession scenario. The stress test focuses on market risk and the losses banks suffer due to falling stock prices, changes in interest rates and increasing credit spreads.

16-11-2017

Extraordinarily high current account surplus is temporary

It appears from the analysis that the very high current account surplus is temporary. The surplus has been extraordinarily high since 2010 – also in comparison to the current business cycle. Corporations' net lending rose sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. Today the surplus mainly reflects high household savings. They save in order to reduce their debt. As consumption and investment increase, the current account surplus will be reduced.

15-11-2017

Banks from more than 100 countries send payments via Kronos

The analysis describes how banks from all over the world safely and efficiently send Danish krone payments to each other via Danmarks Nationalbank's payment system, Kronos. Most Danish banks have an account at Danmarks Nationalbank and participate directly in Kronos, while many foreign banks participate indirectly through an account holder. It is important that the individual bank considers the risks that both direct and indirect participation entails.