Engelsk

Recession probabilities in the USA and the euro area have risen to high levels in recent years. A global downturn will affect a small open economy like Denmark. The risk of recession in Denmark has risen in line with the risk abroad, but the Danish economy is poised well-positioned to withstand a potential global economic downturn.

Following a fall in Danish direct investments abroad in 2018, they increased in the first half of 2019. In the second quarter alone, direct investments abroad amounted to kr. 18 billion, which is the largest quar-terly investment since the beginning of 2017. The fall in 2018 was among other things linked to TDC's sale of its Norwegian business and the reflagging of A.P. Møller-Maersk ships.

Over the past decade, business investment appetite has been in line with that experienced during previous crises and upswings. Investment has increased as spare production capacity has been absorbed. During the crisis and post-crisis years, investment was mainly constrained by high economic uncertainty and low foreign demand for Danish products. Since the mid-1990s, the growing weight of the service sectors in the Danish economy has structurally reduced investment.

​In July 2019, the foreign-exchange reserve decreased by kr. 1.5 billion to kr. 448.1 billion.

Danish investors have bought a large number of North American shares for a total of kr. 16 billion since January 2019. Contrariwise, Danish investors have sold European shares, mainly caused by A.P. Møller-Maersk's sale of their stocks in French Total.

​In June 2019, the foreign-exchange reserve decreased by kr. 2.1 billion to kr. 449.6 billion.

The target for issuance of domestic government bonds in 2019 is increased to kr. 75 billion due to an increase in the central government's purchases of government-guaranteed mortgage bonds. The expected average sales of government bonds per auction are around kr. 3 billion at market value. The on-the-run issues will remain unchanged and focus will be on issuance in the 2-year and 10-year nominal bonds.

The financial wealth of Danish households reaches a new record. Rising equity markets and a large savings surplus contributed to the Danes' wealth increasing by a total of kr. 306 billion in the first quarter of 2019. The increase, which is the largest since 2015, thus more than offset the decline last year, which raises household wealth to new heights.