Effective krone rate

Danmarks Nationalbank calculates the effective exchange rate index for the Danish krone, showing the strength of the Danish krone when measured against multiple other currencies. Referenced to 1980 = 100, the index is available at monthly frequencies from 1970 and at daily frequencies from 1979. Danmarks Nationalbank publishes the index daily. The exchange rate index is re-weighted every five years, most recently in 2019.


Source:

Danmarks Nationalbank

​What is the effective krone rate?

The effective krone rate is an index calculated by Danmarks Nationalbank to measure the strength of the Danish krone relative to a number of other currencies. Denmark conducts a fixed exchange rate policy against the euro. This means that the value of the Danish krone fluctuates only very slightly against the DKK/EUR central rate of DKK 7.46038. However, the krone is floating against all other currencies. The effective krone rate is a measure of the strength of the Danish krone against the currencies of Denmark’s 27 largest trading partners.

A strengthening of the effective krone rate implies that imported foreign goods and services become cheaper in Danish kroner. This helps to moderate inflation in Denmark. A weakening of the effective krone rate has the opposite effect.

What is the real effective krone rate?

The effective krone rate is also used to calculate real effective exchange rates. The real effective exchange rate captures relative price or wage movements (be it in hourly wages, unit labour costs or wage shares) in the same currency.  The real effective exchange rate is used, among other things, to measure Denmark's wage competitiveness against other countries. An increasing real effective krone rate reduces the wage competitiveness of Danish companies, making it more difficult for Danish companies to compete with foreign companies. An increase in the real effective krone rate may be caused by an increase in the effective krone rate, or by higher relative wage growth in Denmark compared to other countries. Conversely, declining real effective exchange rates will improve wage competitiveness. Effective exchange rate developments are therefore key to assessing the competitiveness of the Danish economy.

How to calculate the krone rates

The calculation of effective exchange rates is thus based on multiple currencies. Exchange rates are constantly changing, and not all currencies are equally important for the calculation. The effective and real effective krone rates are calculated on the basis of a set of weights, see the table. The weights reflect the extent to which Danish products are exposed to competition from products from other countries. The greatest weight is given to the most important competitors. The set of weights used to calculate the effective exchange rates is traditionally based on industrial trade. Services are thus not included in the calculation of the weights. However, the inclusion of services would not significantly impact the calculations. Agricultural products are not included, among other things due to the many restrictions to trading in these types of products (trade barriers, tariffs, subsidies etc.) which distort prices and trading.

The calculation of the weights factors in competition with foreign products in the Danish market, in the domestic markets of the countries in question and in third markets. The competition in third markets is captured by the double-weighted export weights. Countries that are strong in almost all markets, like China, are assigned a higher export weight than would be indicated by the bilateral trading. The same applies to the USA.

Danish foreign trade is generally becoming increasingly dispersed across countries. Historically important trading partners now play a less important role. This development is reflected in the most recent revision of the weights used to calculate the effective krone rate. The weights assigned especially to China and, to a lesser extent, the USA are increased, while the weights assigned to neighbouring markets such as Sweden, Germany and the UK are falling. The re-weighting trend seen in connection with earlier weight revisions thus continues.

Generelt bliver den danske udenrigshandel stadig mere spredt på tværs af lande. Samhandelspartnere, der historisk har fyldt meget, fylder i dag mindre. Udviklingen afspejles i den seneste revision af vægtgrundlaget til den effektive kronekurs. Vægtene for især Kina og i mindre grad USA øges, mens de falder for nærmarkeder som Sverige, Tyskland og Storbritannien. Dermed fortsætter udviklingen fra tidligere vægtrevisioner. 

2019 weights for calculating the effective krone rate index

 

Double-weighted export weights
 
 

72.0

Bilateral import weights
 
 

28.0

2019 weights
 
 

100

Change relative to 2014 weights
 
 

 

2019 weights,
real effective
krone rate index

 

Germany (EUR) 15,2 27,6 18,9 -0,7 22,1
China (CNY) 15,7 10,6 14,3 3,2 ...
USA (USD) 11,6 2,9 9,2 0,6 10,9
Sweden (SEK) 5,6 14,2 8,0 -1,8 9,5
The Netherlands (EUR) 4,0 8,3 5,2 -0,4 6,2
Great Britain (GDP) 5,4 4,5 5,1 -0,6 6,1
France (EUR) 4,7 3,6 4,4 -0,4 5,2
Italy (EUR) 4,2 3,8 4,1 -0,2 4,8
Poland (PLN) 2,9 4,5 3,3 0,2 4,0
Belgium (EUR) 3,2 3,7 3,3 -0,6 4,0
Japan (JPY) 4,3 0,6 3,3 0,5 3,9
Norway (NOK) 3,4 2,5 3,1 -0,5 3,7
South Korea (KRW) 3,2 1,6 2,8 1,1 3,3
Spain (EUR) 2,5 1,9 2,3 0,2 2,8
The Czech Republic (CZK) 1,9 2,3 2,0 0,1 2,4
Switzerland (CHF) 2,1 1,0 1,8 0,0 2,1
Finland (EUR) 1,6 1,6 1,6 -0,2 1,9
Austria (EUR) 1,6 1,1 1,4 -0,2 1,7
Hong Kong (KHD) 1,9 0,2 1,4 0,1 ...
Hungary (HUF) 1,1 1,2 1,1 0,0 1,3
Ireland (EUR) 1,1 1,2 1,1 -0,1 1,3
Canada (CAD) 0,9 0,2 0,7 -0,4 0,9
Australia (AUD) 0,8 0,1 0,6 0,0 0,7
Portugal (EUR) 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,6
Greece (EUR) 0,3 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,3
Iceland (ISK) 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2
New Zealand (NZD) 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1
Euro area (EUR) 38,8 53,6 43,0 -2,7 50,9

Note:

The total set of weights, 2019 weights based on trading in industrial goods in 2018 is presented as a weighted average of the double-weighted export weight and the bilateral import weight. Exports are weighted at 72.0 per cent, calculated as manufactured exports as a share of the value of total manufactured output. The total set of weights, comprising both export and import weights, has more decimals than shown in this table. China and Hong Kong are not included in the real krone rate index. Currency ISO codes are shown in brakets.

Source:

OECD, Statistics Denmark and own calculations.