The turning point model

Abstract icon The turning point model includes few, key economic indicators which provide leading information about the business cycle. The model is non-linear in parameters and provides a distribution of how probable certain outcomes are.

​The turning point model is ongoing work in partnership with the European Central Bank, ECB, and it helps to identify potential economic turning points more quickly. 

In the chart and table below you can follow how the models estimates update with new key economic indicators.