Danmarks Nationalbank maintains its expectation that the upswing in the Danish economy will continue in the coming years. According to the projection in the Monetary Review, 3rd Quarter 2015, growth will continue, with an annual increase in GDP of around 2 per cent. Exports and private consumption will be the key drivers of growth in the coming years.
The forecast for GDP growth this year is adjusted downwards slightly due to the development in the 2nd quarter. Overall, the growth outlook is unchanged, and the projection assumes that the upswing will pick up speed in the 2nd half of the year.
Rising output is expected to increase employment by 97,000 persons and reduce gross unemployment by just over 25,000 persons from 2014 to 2017. This will only be possible with a substantial increase in the labour force, so it is important that economic policy, including a new reform of the unemployment benefit system, remains focused on increasing the supply of labour.
With the economic situation set to normalise in 2017, fiscal policy should be gradually adjusted from currently stimulating economic activity to having a neutral effect. Danmarks Nationalbank therefore recommends that fiscal policy be tightened, so that the structural budget is brought to balance.
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK'S PROJECTION
Danmarks Nationalbank's forecast for GDP growth is 1.8 per cent in 2015, 2.1 per cent in 2016 and 1.8 per cent in 2017. The forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are unchanged relative to the June projection. The annual increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HICP, is forecast at 0.3 per cent in 2015, 1.5 per cent in 2016 and 1.9 per cent in 2017.
Enquiries can be directed to Julie Holm Simonsen on tel. +45 3363 6022.