19 March 2025
The Danish economy is fundamentally balanced and there are prospects for good growth, continued high employment and low, stable inflation in the coming years.
Growth in the Danish economy is expected to be fuelled by developments in the domestic economy to a greater extent than in recent years. Further progress in the activities abroad of large, global Danish companies, which are recognised in Danish value added, will also contribute to growth.
"The relatively high growth in the projection of 3.6 per cent this year includes the development of Danish production abroad and the reopening of the Tyra field. Without these two factors, we estimate that the Danish economy will grow more moderately at 1.4 per cent this year," says Christian Kettel Thomsen, Governor of Danmarks Nationalbank.
"Behind the positive picture of the Danish economy, there are factors that can paint a less attractive picture. The Danish economy has adapted to new challenges in the past, most recently during the pandemic, and this will be needed again if trade conflicts and increased defence spending become commonplace," says Thomsen.
If global trade conflicts or the implementation of tariff barriers escalate, it could have a major impact on world trade.
"Our analyses indicate that increased fragmentation of the global economy or a sharp decline in world trade could mean lower growth and higher prices domestically and globally," says Thomsen.
Denmark and Europe are also facing a significant increase in defence spending, which could increase capacity pressure in the economy.
"If capacity pressure in Denmark increases significantly, it should be offset by fiscal measures that reduce it accordingly. This should be seen in light of the fact that Denmark is currently considered to be in a neutral economic situation," says Thomsen.
Danmarks Nationalbank's expectations in a new projection:
In our new projection, we expect HICP inflation in Denmark to be 2.0 per cent this year, 1.7 per cent in 2026 and 2027. We expect GDP growth to be 3.6 per cent this year, 2.3 per cent in 2026 and 2.0 per cent in 2027.
Danmarks Nationalbank's new analyses of the Danish economy and the new annual report for 2024 can be found on the bank's website, nationalbanken.dk.
Enquiries and registrations for the press conference can be directed to press advisor Peter Levring on 2620 1809 and pnbl@nationalbanken.dk.