Analyses focus on current issues of particular relevance to Danmarks Nationalbank’s objectives. The analyses may also contain Danmarks Nationalbank’s recommendations. They include our projections for the Danish economy and our assessment of financial stability. Analyses are targeted at people with a broad interest in economic and financial matters.
Global tensions, rising house prices and the cyberthreat dominate the risk outlook
High uncertainty due to, i.a., the war in the Middle East and higher energy prices are affecting the global economy. In Denmark, there are now clearer signs of a build-up of risks in the capital's housing market, where vulnerability is increasing as house prices continue to rise. Cyberattacks remain one of the most significant risks to financial stability, underscoring the need for strong crisis response.
Key messages
Why is it important?
Financial stability is a prerequisite for the financial sector to fulfil its socially critical tasks. Even during a crisis, customers should still be able to borrow money for sound and creditworthy projects and be able to make and receive payments. This requires the financial sector to be resilient enough to withstand economic and financial crises, helping to ensure Denmark has a resilient economy.
Danmarks Nationalbank publishes its Financial stability analysis biannually, which summarises the bank’s assessments of and recommendations for financial stability in Denmark. The analysis sheds light on whether vulnerabilities in the financial system can arise due to the lending, liquidity management or capital planning of credit institutions. It also presents the results of Danmarks Nationalbank’s biannual stress test, which helps to assess whether the largest credit institutions have sufficient capital to handle a sharp economic downturn. The analysis can also cover other issues relevant to financial stability. Examples include pension and life insurance companies, working with cyber risks, digitalisation or the impact of climate change on the financial sector.
Main chart
Higher house price growth in municipalities closer to
Note:
Average annual house price growth by distance to Copenhagen. House prices at municipal level are calculated as an average of prices for owner-occupied flats and single-family houses, weighted by their respective shares of the housing stock. The chart includes municipalities on Zealand with at least 100 homes sold in the relevant quarters. The red markers indicate annual municipal house price growth from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025. Dashed lines denote estimated linear trend lines. Annual house price growth for the Municipality of Copenhagen from Q4 2020 to Q4 2024 is shown in black. Næstved Municipality (71 km from Copenhagen) is the municipality where house price growth from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 exceeds 15 per cent per annum.
Source:
Finance Denmark and www.OpenStreetMap.org.