Analyses focus on current issues of particular relevance to Danmarks Nationalbank’s objectives. The analyses may also contain Danmarks Nationalbank’s recommendations. They include our projections for the Danish economy and our assessment of financial stability. Analyses are targeted at people with a broad interest in economic and financial matters.
Robust Danish economy in an uncertain global landscape
The Danish and global economies have proven robust over the past year in the face of geopolitical and trade policy turmoil. The war in the Middle East is expected to drive up inflation in Denmark this year, but the underlying price development is expected to remain low and stable in the slightly longer term. The outlook is for a balanced growth trajectory, but with slightly lower growth than in recent years. This is because the global economy is facing a slowdown in growth this year due to the war in the Middle East, while continued restraint on the part of Danish households is dampening the growth in private domestic demand. The outlook is subject to significant and persistent uncertainty related to, among other things, geopolitical tensions, the war in the Middle East and trade conflicts.
Key messages
Why is this important?
Danmarks Nationalbank continuously oversees the Danish economy to meet its objective of ensuring price stability. The bank therefore assesses developments in a number of areas and makes macroeconomic projections to obtain the best basis for determining whether socio-economic imbalances are building up. Because the bank’s interest rates are reserved for managing the krone exchange rate, it is important that other aspects of economic policy are aimed at ensuring a stable economy. We therefore make fiscal policy recommendations.
Main chart
Inflation this year will be boosted by higher energy prices,
while a number of tax changes will lower overall inflation
Note:
The most recent observation is from February 2026. Core inflation is calculated as inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food.
Source:
Statistics Denmark and own calculations.