Working Paper presents research work by both Danmarks Nationalbank’s employees and our partners. The series is primarily targeted at professionals and people with an interest in central banking research as well as economics and finance in a broader sense.

Financial stability and financial risks

WP No 86, 2013: Stress scenarios from the tails of historical distributions of macrofinancial risk factors in Denmark

The paper puts the outcome during the most recent financial crisis in a historical perspective by taking a closer look at the frequency of extreme events in the economic history of Denmark, in some cases based on time series back to the late 1600s. We focus on the frequency distribution of a range of key macro-financial risk factors that are commonly believed to be important drivers of credit risks and market risks faced by financial institutions. We suggest that marginal historical distributions of macro-financial risk factors might serve as inspiration for design of sensitivity tests and "worst case" scenarios in risk management and macro stress tests.