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Tariffs and Danish exports: Insights from three decades of microdata
Foreign tariffs on Danish exports have fallen by more than half over the past three decades, yet substantial differences remain across products. Drawing on historical product-level tariff data, foreign trade statistics, and firm-level accounts, our analysis shows that exports of Danish goods decline when tariffs rise. In contrast, employment and investment among Danish exporters show no clear changes. These patterns suggest that firms adapt to higher tariffs, either by seeking new trading partners or rerouting exports through third countries, helping to cushion the broader economic impact.
Key messages
Why is this important?
Tariffs affect Danish firms’ export opportunities in foreign countries. Understanding developments in tariffs imposed on Denmark’s exports is important for assessing the resilience and adaptability of Danish firms in global trade. This is particularly important for a small open economy like Denmark, where international trade plays a key role in economic performance.
Main chart
Danish border-crossing goods exports decline by 9 per cent if tariffs rise by 10 per cent, according to our estimates
Note:
Calculations are based on 2024 foreign trade statistics at current prices, combined with the estimated trade elasticity, reflecting average firm behaviour over the sample period 1993–2021.
Source:
Own calculations based on data from Statistics Denmark and Teti, Feodora A. (2024), Missing Tariffs, CESifo Working Papers No. 11590.