Can Crises be Predicted?
In 2008, the global economy was hit by a crisis that caught almost all economistsin Denmark and abroad by surprise. Against this backdrop, it is discussed why itwas not possible to predict this sharp reversal of the economy, which was theresult of certain underlying imbalances. Looking ahead, a key issue is how toimprove the ability to identify economic imbalances with negative consequencesfor growth and employment. In this connection, the Bank for InternationalSettlements, BIS, and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, have constructedindicators of economic imbalances.