Tools for Cyclical Assessment - Part 2
Monetary review, 4th Quarter 2011
This article describes in detail the NARES model used by Danmarks Nationalbank
for conjunctural analysis purposes. The model uses the available economic statistics
for calculation of indicators of key national accounts components, such as
private consumption, investment and exports. On the basis of these indicators,
NARES makes it possible to compile approximate quarterly national accounts
earlier than Statistics Denmark's first release of national accounts figures. The
article also presents a number of alternative models for cyclical assessment purposes.
One of these is used to construct an alternative estimate of GDP growth,
and the results are compared with i. a. a technical application of NARES. All in
all, the NARES model is regarded as a useful tool in the assessment of the current
state of the economy and in preparing economic projections.