Tools for Cyclical Assessment - Part 2

Monetary review, 4th Quarter 2011

Authors Hvid Jørgensen, Esben; Storgaard, Peter Ejler; Sørensen, Jonas
Subject Danish Economy
Type Monetary Review  
Year 2011
Published 6 February 2012
This article describes in detail the NARES model used by Danmarks Nationalbank for conjunctural analysis purposes. The model uses the available economic statistics for calculation of indicators of key national accounts components, such as private consumption, investment and exports. On the basis of these indicators, NARES makes it possible to compile approximate quarterly national accounts earlier than Statistics Denmark's first release of national accounts figures. The article also presents a number of alternative models for cyclical assessment purposes. One of these is used to construct an alternative estimate of GDP growth, and the results are compared with i. a. a technical application of NARES. All in all, the NARES model is regarded as a useful tool in the assessment of the current state of the economy and in preparing economic projections.