Expansions do not necessarily end because of old age

Analysis - June 2020 – No. 10

Authors Pedersen, Jesper; Kramp, Paul Lassenius
Subject Danish Economy; Economic activity and employment
Type Analysis
Year 2020
Published 15 June 2020
The current expansion in the US has been historically long. In Denmark, the expansion has lasted for 10 years. This has increased focus on whether expansions die of old age. The length of expansions varies a lot across 19 OECD countries. About 20 per cent of all expansions have lasted longer than the current Danish expansion. Imbalances increase the risk of expansions dying. Recessions are short, but become longer if imbalances were present during the preceding expansion.