Working Papers present research work by both Danmarks Nationalbank’s employees and our partners. Working Papers are primarily targeted at professionals and people with an interest in central banking research as well as economics and finance in a broader sense.

Models

Working Paper: The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area

A statistical model for euro area macroeconomic aggregates shows that an increase in uncertainty and disagreement about the economic outlook impacts the economy three times as much if the outlook is pessimistic. This result implies that the uncertainty generated by COVID-19 can lead to a 15.1% fall in industrial production.