Publications


Abstract icon You find Danmarks Nationalbank's publications here. Under Type you can search for the individual type of publication. Danmarks Nationalbank's current publication series is listed in the right-hand box Series types. Publications in previous publication formats can be found by selecting the name of the type you are looking for, e.g. Monetary Review.
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30-11-2021

Working Paper: Firm financing and public support measures during the pandemic

This paper studies Danish firms' debt financing decisions during covid-19 with a focus on the impact of government support measures. Credit growth has been modest during the pandemic. Public liquidity measures such as deferred tax and VAT payments served as a substitute for more traditional debt funding sources.

29-11-2021

Nonbanks, credit provision and the transmission of monetary policy in Denmark

We analyse the role of nonbank lenders in corporate and consumer credit markets in Denmark and show that they affect the transmission of monetary policy to financial and real outcomes. Nonbanks increase their share of credit supply after an interest rate hike in both the consumer and corporate credit markets.

18-11-2021

The Faroese Economy – The boom has regained momentum

The Faroe Islands are experiencing widespread labour shortages, due to very low unemployment and an already high labour market participation rate. At the same time, the continued boom is supported by improved export prospects. Long-term fiscal planning will improve the resilience of the Faroese economy. Capital should be set aside in good times to draw upon in bad. With the ageing of the Faroese population, balance between expenditure and revenue is also important.

03-11-2021

Greenlandic economy - Booming economy and severe labour shortages

Greenland has fared better than most countries in weathering the covid-19 pandemic. Labour shortages are severe, and the risk of overheating of the economy has increased. Nuuk is experiencing the strongest labour market pressures, while South and East Greenland are experiencing the lowest. Large-scale infrastructure investments will cause debts of the government of Greenland, local government and government-owned companies to grow considerably over the coming years.

02-11-2021

Limited interest-rate sensitivity amongst homeowners

The interest-rate sensitivity of Danish homeowners has decreased in the period from 2009 to 2019. These are among the conclusions of a new Working Paper in which Stine Ludvig Bech, Simon Juul Hviid og Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen from Danmarks Nationalbank have analysed, how homeowners will be affected by an interest-rate increase.

02-11-2021

Working Paper: Measuring household interest-rate sensitivity in Denmark

We evaluate homeowners’ interest-rate sensitivity on cash flows and balance sheets of a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates. Overall, the interest-rate sensitivity is limited. However, for a subgroup of homeowners, an increase in interest rates will have a substantial effect on their cash flows and balance sheets.

27-10-2021

Working Paper: Corporate Investment and Cash Holdings under Financing Shocks

I analyze to which extent corporate cash holdings protect firms from the adverse consequences of shocks to their borrowing costs. Despite firms self-insuring against spikes in their borrowing costs by holding cash, an aggregate shock to borrowing conditions similar to that seen during the Global Financial Crisis can significantly contract aggregate investment, especially for firms with low cash holdings.

22-10-2021

Flood risk discounts in the Danish housing market

We investigate the effects of the risk of flooding on the prices of single-family homes in Denmark. Houses that are exposed to flood risk today, as well as houses that will be exposed to flood risk in the future due to rising sea levels, are priced at a discount.

12-10-2021

Danmarks Nationalbank's gold – a historical overview

There is still public interest in Danmarks Nationalbank's gold stock, although it has been many years since gold played an important role in the cash system and more generally in monetary and foreign exchange policies. The analysis provides an overview of the historical background of the gold stock based on source material from Danmarks Nationalbank's archives at the Danish National Archives.

12-10-2021

Danmarks Nationalbank's gold

Danmarks Nationalbank has around 66.5 tonnes of gold. A new analysis provides a general overview of the historical background for Danmarks Nationalbank's gold stock based on source material from Danmarks Nationalbank's archive at the Danish National Archives.

22-09-2021

Outlook for the Danish economy - The economy heading back towards a moderate boom

Rapid recovery after the lockdowns has resulted in recruitment difficulties for companies. Economic growth is expected to continue, with the economy moving into a moderate boom. Bottlenecks are not expected to develop into an actual overheating of the economy, but several prerequisites are present for a scenario with significantly stronger growth. The Government should therefore be prepared to tighten its economic policy more than planned.

22-09-2021

Monetary and financial trends - Accommodative financial conditions strengthen the upswing

The recovery of the western economies has contributed to higher corporate earnings in Denmark and higher equity prices. Danish long-term bond yields have edged up slightly since March, but remain low. Overall, financial conditions are accommodative for the growth in GDP.

15-09-2021

The pension sector's alternative investments

The pension sectors alternative investments of kr. 500 billion have provided diversification and stable returns. Most companies have room to invest even more in alternatives if deemed appropriate in terms of risk and return. An increased share of alternatives can impact both solvency and liquidity, where especially liquidity can become tight if e.g. interest rates increase. Strong management of short- and long-term risks is thus important.

08-09-2021

Working Paper: Government spending and retail prices: Regional evidence from the United States

In this Working Paper, I study the effects of local government spending on local retail prices using retail scanner data from the United States. Estimates show that retail prices increase following an increase in government spending. I provide evidence which indicates that this cannot be accounted for by changes in marginal costs.

06-09-2021

New ECB strategy and the Danish economy

The ECB's new monetary policy strategy was published on 8 July 2021. The analysis presents the changes and their potential impacts on the Danish economy. ECB's new monetary policy strategy does not influence the way in which Danmarks Nationalbank conducts monetary policy. Overall, the changes are assessed to have small potential positive impacts on the Danish economy.

01-09-2021

How cyber resilient is the Danish financial sector?

Key financial sector participants have strong external defences and have improved their capability to detect and respond to cyber attacks. Increased focus is required on the protection of critical data and the capability for safe and effective recovery of core systems. This is demonstrated by Danmarks Nationalbank's cyber resilience surveys.

18-08-2021

Digitalised economies have performed better during the pandemic

The pandemic has accelerated the digital transition in many countries. This Economic Memo finds that the degree of digitalisation has had an impact on the magnitude of economic losses during the pandemic. Differences in the EU countries' objectives for digital transition can imply greater digital inequality in the future and a deeper economic gap between the countries. (Memo available in Danish only).

10-08-2021

Three lessons from the Danish wage compensation scheme

This memo aims to take the first steps in analysing the use of the wage compensation scheme in Denmark and its effectiveness to preserve job matches. We find that firms used the furlough programme extensively to save at-risk workers. This focus has been particularly on saving full-time workers and workers with higher tenure.

06-07-2021

Description of Kronos2 in relation to international principles

Danmarks Nationalbank owns and operates the only system for real-time settlement of large, time-critical payments in Danish kroner. The central position of Kronos in the financial infrastructure entails high safety and efficiency requirements. This report provides a detailed description of Kronos' observance of the international principles for financial market infrastructures.

02-07-2021

Housing market robustness should be strengthened

The pandemic has led to high trading activity and house price increases. This creates extraordinary uncertainty about future house prices. By the end of 2023, house prices are expected to have risen significantly. Measures are needed now, such as increased amortisation requirements and lower interest deductions that can strengthen the robustness of the Danish economy – both now and in the future.

01-07-2021

Climate change and the role of central banks

For the first time, Danmarks Nationalbank takes an overall stand on its role in relation to climate change and the transition to a green economy. Climate change and the transition may pose challenges to the objectives of price and financial stability. Central banks have a task in adapting to the new challenges.

30-06-2021

Consistent recovery and resolution of small and large banks in Europe

In 2014, the EU adopted a new framework for recovery and resolution in order to sever the tie between banks and government, so that the taxpayers no longer had to pick up the tab for failing banks. In Denmark, the framework for recovery and resolution constituted a minor innovation because Denmark already had a framework ensuring that the creditors of failing banks absorbed losses. The European framework is still evolving. The Danish experiences are useful in a European context.

28-06-2021

Working Paper: Securitization and House Price Growth

From 2000-2006 US house prices and mortgage credit grew while the relative cost of mortgage credit fell particularly for privately securitized mortgages suggesting a credit supply expansion. This paper explores two (credit supply) shocks: an increased inflow of global savings into the US, and innovations in the securitization of mortgage credit. Only innovation in securitization matches mortgage market dynamics.

28-06-2021

Working Paper: The Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing in a DSGE Model with Financial Frictions

Investors who arbitrage between long term government debt and corporate debt expand the Portfolio Balance Channel in that the effects of Quantitative Easing (QE) spill over to the overall cost of corporate borrowing. I find that overall the Federal Reserve’s second round of QE boosts output between 0.5 - 1.7%.

25-06-2021

Female company owners pay higher interest rates

Using microdata, the analysis demonstrates that female company owners pay higher interest rates on corporate loans than their male counterparts. The interest rate differential is both economically and statistically significant, and does not disappear when adjusting for relevant company and loan characteristics using sophisticated statistical methods.

25-06-2021

Working Paper: Female business owners pay higher interest rates on corporate loans

Female owners of small and medium-sized enterprises, on average, pay almost 1 percent higher interest rates than male owners. Firm and loan characteristics explain most of this difference. Nonetheless, a 26 basis point gap cannot be explained, suggesting that female business owners tend to leave a disproportionate share of money on the table during negotiations with credit institutions.

23-06-2021

Outlook for the Danish economy - Danish economy is heading for a mild boom

The reopening of the Danish society is in full swing characterised by high private demand. Growth is expected to continue, and there are already large price increases in the housing market as well as signs of bottlenecks building up. The Government should prepare tightening fiscal policy more than planned, and there is a need for measures to strengthen robustness in the housing market.

17-06-2021

Strategy Announcement - Central government borrowing strategy in the 2nd half of 2021

The target for sales of domestic government bonds in 2021 is lowered to kr. 110 billion from kr. 125 billion. The on-the-run issues remain unchanged and focus will continue to be on issuance in the 2-year and 10-year nominal bonds. Issuance of short-term papers is increased and the total outstanding amount of T-bills and commercial papers is expected to be kr. 95 billion by the end of 2021, of which up to kr. 60 billion in T-bills.

10-06-2021

Flood risk can potentially affect a large share of credit institutions' exposure

Danish credit institutions have substantial exposures collateralised by real estate at risk of flooding in future climate scenarios. These exposures could amount to kr. 200 billion by the end of this century. Some credit institutions have a large share of the exposures at risk concentrated in the same geographical area.

27-05-2021

Financial stability - Build-up of risks in credit institutions

The banks are ready for the ongoing economic recovery: Their lending to hard-hit corporations is limited, and provisions have been made to handle losses. But the booming housing market gives cause for concern. Higher down payment requirement and amortisation requirement for highly indebted homeowners are among the measures that should be considered in order to limit vulnerability in connection with a subsequent drop in house prices.

27-05-2021

A few systemic banks have capital shortfall in severe recession

A stress test of the banking sector shows that a few systemic banks fall short of their risk-based capital requirements in a severe recession scenario. Most banks are generally better capitalised than previously, but they are challenged in the stress test by weaker earnings, which means they are less resilient under stress. The stress test also shows that the banks must continuously ensure sufficient surplus relative to the MREL.

19-05-2021

Working Paper: Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises

The Working Paper evaluates the economic sources of the stock market responses of 40 countries to surprises in US monetary policy. We show that fed funds rate and large-scale asset purchases surprises affect foreign stock markets because they influence foreign countries’ real economic outlook. Forward guidance surprises seem to convey non-monetary information.

10-05-2021

Banks ready for expiry of government liquidity support

The banks are well equipped to make loans to viable corporations when the deferred tax payment deadlines and tax loans fall due. At the same time, the corporations' use of the relief packages have dropped to a low level. On this basis, it is assessed that the banks will be able to handle any deterioration in the creditworthiness of their customers on expiry of the relief packages.

04-05-2021

Oversight of the financial infrastructure 2020

The report presents the conclusions of Danmarks Nationalbank's oversight of the Danish payments infrastructure in 2020. The core payment and settlement systems and most important payment solutions extensively comply with international safety and efficiency standards. Efforts are continuously made to enhance the cyber resilience of systems/solutions. Due to the evolving nature of the cyber threat landscape, there is room for improvement – despite ongoing progress.

27-04-2021

The response of private customers to negative deposit rates

Negative deposit rates for household customers are now used by most banks in Denmark. Furthermore, the thresholds for when negative interest rates are payable have gradually been reduced. There are indications that household customers reduce their deposits when their bank announces negative interest rates. They also appear to react to the prospects of negative deposit rates by increasing their demand for investment fund shares and switching their deposits to pool schemes.

22-04-2021

Working Paper: Nowcasting and forecasting economic activity in Denmark using payment system data

We show that payment system data can be used to improve forecasts of short-term changes in economic activity in Denmark. We compare the predictive performance of payment system data to a set of high‑frequency variables that includes industrial production and consumer prices, among many others.

20-04-2021

Working Paper: Consumer good search: theory and evidence

When households search more for low prices on consumer goods, they lower firms' markups. The extent to which household search affects these markups fluctuates with the business cycle, which has been used in various macroeconomic models to generate pro-cyclical fluctuations in the markups. This Working Paper shows that it is difficult to align the basic underlying search model with the empirical differences in search between employed and unemployed individuals, and cautions against using these models in the context of business cycles.

13-04-2021

Working Paper: Monetary Policy Expectation Errors

We use survey expectations about future monetary policy to decompose excess returns on fed funds futures and overnight index swaps into a term premium and an expectation error component. We find that excess returns are primarily driven by expectation errors, while term premia are economically small and negative on average. Most expectation errors stem from market participants underestimating how aggressively the Federal Reserve has eased policy during the last three decades. Our findings reveal that market participants are continuously learning about the central bank's reaction function and have been slow to recognize the rising importance attributed to deteriorating financial conditions and falling stock prices. We document similar results in an international sample of six major currency areas.

12-04-2021

Refinancing has boosted the interest rate pass-through to fixed-rate mortgages

Half of homeowners in Denmark finance their mortgages via fixed rate loans. Danish fixed rate mortgages are special, as they can be re-financed without the outstanding debt being significantly increased. This makes refinancing attractive when interest rates decrease. Declin-ing interest rates since the financial crisis have implied that many homeowners have refinanced their fixed rate mortgages to lower rates. This has increased the interest rate pass-through and thus supported the transmission of monetary policy rates to homeowners' budgets.

12-04-2021

Working Paper: The role of refinancing in the interest rate pass-through to fixed-rate mortgage contracts

In this paper, I study how mortgage refinancing influences the interest rate pass-through to household budgets via fixed-rate mortgage contracts in Denmark. The paper shows that the long-run interest rate pass-through is significantly below unity in the years after the financial crisis and subsequently converges towards a level close to unity. The result can be used to understand the importance of the asymmetric effects of monetary policy transmission.

08-04-2021

How do non-pharmaceutical interventions affect the spread of COVID-19? A literature review

This memo reviews the academic literature on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Only empirical studies are included. Interventions generally reduce COVID-19 spread but the literature is less conclusive for some interventions than others. Intervention timing and local characteristics are determinants of effectiveness.

07-04-2021

Working Paper: Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and its Aggregate Implications

Using micro-level data, we document a systematic income-related component in household income forecasting errors. We show that this bias can be formalized by a modest deviation from rational expectations, where agents overestimate the persistence of their income process. The bias alters the distribution of marginal propensities to consume which makes government stimulus policies less effective.

23-03-2021

A Factor Model Approach to Nowcasting Danish GDP

This memo documents a nowcasting model for Danish GDP used during the economic crisis related to the outbreak of COVID-19. During this crisis, the model provided timely and more accurate nowcasts than a simple model. To improve the timeliness of nowcasts we make use of new high-frequency indicators.

23-03-2021

Working Paper: Detecting turning points in the Danish economy in real time

This working paper documents an econometric model for detecting turning points in the Danish economy. The model can be updated immediately as data comes through. It is shown that the model gives correct signals about the activity in the Danish economy in real time.

17-03-2021

Outlook for the Danish economy – Prospects of a rapid recovery once restrictions are eased

The second wave of the pandemic and new lockdowns have temporarily interrupted economic recovery and resulted in new large losses of activity in large parts of the Danish and international economies during the winter. However, other parts of the economy are seeing high activity, including construction and the housing market. Vaccination of the population and reopening of society have begun. Large savings, disbursement of holiday pay funds and accumulated demand provide a sound basis for a heavy increase in activity when the economy is less constrained by restrictions. Overall, activity is expected to have recovered towards the end of 2021.

17-03-2021

Monetary and financial trends - Accommodative financial conditions support the real economy

Despite long term yields in particular having increased in 2021, the interest rate level is still low. Simultaneously, equity and house prices have increased during the past six month, and the financial conditions are considered accommodative. The Danish krone is moderately strengthened against the euro since March 2020.

17-03-2021

Annual Report 2020

Danmarks Nationalbank posted a profit of kr. 1,616 million in 2020 against a profit of kr. 6,096 million in 2019. Gold stock, equity exposure and bond holdings all contributed significantly to the profit for the year.

11-03-2021

Technical adjustment of the monetary policy instruments

Danmarks Nationalbank introduces one single rate for deposits and one single rate for monetary policy loans. Simultaneously, the difference between the monetary policy rates is narrowed. The adjustments ensure more stable money market rates and thus a more predictable effect on the Danish krone. The adjustments are not intended nor expected to affect the level of money market rates or the Danish krone.

08-03-2021

Working Paper: Regulating Liquidity Risk in Mutual Funds

I analyze the effects of liquidity risk regulation in a model of investors, mutual funds, and the underlying asset market. Investor redemptions lead mutual funds to sell assets, which may result in fire sales if market liquidity, driven by the anticipation of fire sales, is scarce. Mutual funds optimally choose to pass fire sales of their assets on to investors. Pecuniary externalities make liquidity supply to the underlying asset market inefficiently low. Regulatory policies, liquidity requirements for mutual funds, and redemption gates have adverse effects on liquidity provision to the asset market and may increase the incidence of fire sales.

04-03-2021

Crisis management of credit institutions – what is new?

Today, we have crisis management rules in Denmark and the rest of the EU which ensure crisis management of failing credit institutions without the use of government funds. A recent revision of the rules makes it more likely that senior unsecured creditors will have to contribute to the crisis management of a failing credit institution. It is important that senior unsecured creditors are aware of the risk and take it into account in their risk management.

12-02-2021

Working Paper: The Value of Bond Underwriter Relationships

This paper analyzes the role of underwriters for issuers of corporate bonds. The results suggest that – in terms of issuance costs – bond issuers benefit from using underwriters they have used before, but, at the same time, this exposes the issuer to a credit risk spillover from the underwriter.

11-02-2021

High savings during corona were driven by restrictions rather than precautionary consumers

Households' savings increased significantly during the first wave of the corona pandemic in Denmark and several other countries. This Economic Memo finds that the higher savings in Denmark were driven by restrictions rather than precautionary consumers. Precautionary savings have so far been relatively limited and smaller than during the financial crisis. (Memo available in Danish only).

10-02-2021

Danish Government Borrowing and Debt 2020

The government budget developed better than expected in 2020. The Danish central government debt amounted to kr. 536 billion, equal to 23 per cent of GDP at the end of 2020. The course of the covid-19 crisis has clearly highlighted the importance of the central government having access to a broad and diversified investor base through multiple financing channels. Despite periods with market turmoil, domestic government bonds were sold at record low yields. On average, nominal government bonds were sold at a yield to maturity of -0.33 per cent p.a. and an average maturity of 11.6 years. Interest costs on the central government debt totalled 0.7 per cent of GDP.

08-02-2021

Are climate change risks priced in the US stock market?

We construct measures of physical and transition risks by conducting textual analysis of climate news. Using U.S. stock prices, we find that only the short-term risks elicited by the political debate are priced. Longer running risks elicited by news on international summits, global warming and natural disasters are not priced.

08-02-2021

Working Paper: Are Climate Change Risks Priced in the US Stock Market?

We construct proxies of physical and transition risks by conducting textual analysis of climate news. Using U.S. stock prices, we find that only the short-term risks elicited by the political debate are priced. Longer running risks elicited by news on international summits, global warming and natural disasters are not priced.

03-02-2021

Denmark supports the IMF's crisis response

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a historically large number of loans during the coronavirus crisis. The demand for IMF loans is expected to increase further as a result of the coronavirus crisis and vulnerabilities in a number of countries. Danmarks Nationalbank contributes to the IMF's crisis response and has made new lending resources available to the IMF on behalf of Denmark.

03-02-2021

The IMF's provision of insurance against balance of payments needs and how to improve it

The memo summarizes the design and use of the IMF's precautionary facilities since their introduction and discusses lessons and potential reform options. In particular, the framework for these facilities should be adjusted to address prolonged use at high access levels.

02-02-2021

Working Paper: How news affects sectoral stock prices through earnings expectations and risk premia

We show that the transmission of news to prices goes through a combination of changing earnings expectations and risk premia. Price changes for especially the financial sector are mainly driven by changes in equity risk premia, while changes in earnings expectations play a comparatively larger role for other sectors.

26-01-2021

Data-driven effort strengthens the fight against money laundering

Danmarks Nationalbank, in collaboration with a large Danish bank and other institutional actors, has shown that an innovative risk-based approach based on multiple data sources, among which granular transaction data, can support the fight against economic crime. Realising the full potential of such an approach requires combining data across banks and public institutions.

26-01-2021

Working Paper: QE in a quasi-preferred habitat: The case of the Danish pension sector and the ECB asset purchase programme

The reaction of Danish pension companies to ECB’s asset purchase programme is analysed using a novel, in-house data set. The pension companies sold euro bonds and bought Danish bonds in the first months following the introduction of the ECB purchase programme in 2015. After a short while, the pension companies returned as buyers of euro bonds.

26-01-2021

Pension fund response to ECB purchases

In early 2015, when the European Central Bank (ECB) began purchasing government bonds issued by euro area countries, Danish pension funds sold off the bonds purchased by the ECB to buy Danish bonds. Changes to the ECB's monetary policy stance are important to Danmarks Nationalbank and Danish monetary policy.

21-12-2020

Strategy announcement - Central government borrowing strategy 2021

The target for sales of domestic government bonds is kr. 125 billion. Issuance will be focused in the 2-year and 10-year nominal bonds. On 20 January, a new 10-year bond with maturity in 2031 will be opened. A new 2-year bond with maturity in 2024 will also be opened in the 1st half of the year. The target for sales of domestic T-bills is kr. 60 billion, and the outstanding amount of commercial papers will be reduced as the temporary Covid-19 measures are phased out.

21-12-2020

Working Paper: Labor cost pass-through to producer prices in Denmark

We estimate the pass-through of a wage shock to producer prices of firms in Denmark. Our results suggest that the pass-through elasticity of wage increases to prices amounts to about one third. Our results are in line with studies of earlier time periods and confirm an important causal relationship between wages and prices.

16-12-2020

Faroese economy - The Faroese economic boom is losing momentum

Nine months after the outbreak for the corona pandemic, employment on the Faroe Islands is high, unemployment very low, and parts of the economy experience labour shortages. However, exports have lost speed this year on the back of extraordinary growth, and the economic boom now seems to have peaked. In the future, more elderly and less working-aged challenges the sustainability of public finances. It is important to prioritize reforms early on that bring a balance to income and expenses in the future.

15-12-2020

Outlook for the Danish economy - Spread of coronavirus delays recovery

Parts of the Danish economy are dominated by high activity, while other parts are limited by restrictions that delay recovery. Economic growth has slowed down, but is expected to pick up in 2021 as the population is vaccinated and restrictions are eased. Fiscal policy is currently stimulating demand in industries not affected by restrictions and in which activity is already high. Fiscal policy should not be eased further, but temporary relief measures may be extended to industries affected by restrictions.

10-12-2020

Financial stability - Banks should keep their powder dry

So far, the credit institutions have come through the crisis relatively unscathed. With a number of relief packages, the central government has provided a cushion under large parts of the Danish corporate sector. However, credit institutions must prepare for the end of the schemes. In line with the government relief packages being phased out, the credit institutions will have to expect higher losses and a deterioration in the credit quality of their lending. The situation remains highly uncertain, and the credit institutions should be cautious when planning dividend payments.

10-12-2020

A few banks fall short of capital requirements in stress test

A stress test of the banking sector shows that a few banks fall short of the capital buffer requirements in a severe recession scenario. However, due to the suspension of dividend payments and share buybacks, most banks are more resilient to stress than previously. For the first time, Danmarks Nationalbank uses the credit register data to allocate impairment charges more accurately among banks' corporate customers.

03-12-2020

How does COVID-19 affect r*?

This memo discusses effects of COVID-19 on interest rates through the lens of global movements in the natural real interest rate. While government spending and public debt issuance are likely to cause a rise in r*, r* may decline due to precautionary behaviour. The net effect is uncertain.

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Text may be copied from Danmarks Nationalbank's publications, provided that Danmarks Nationalbank is specifically stated as the source. Changes to or misrepresentation of the content are not permitted