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Homeowners’ budgets and debt servicing capacity projections

By 2023, because of inflation and rising interest rates the monthly budget of an additional 3.4 percent of homeowners would be insufficient to obtain their current loans from a Danish credit institute. Further, in case of unemployment the budget of 3 out of 4 affected households would be severely impacted despite insurance and spousal income.


Financial stability - Interest rate hikes affect the banks and their customers

Higher interest rates and consumer prices are draining the resilience of household customers, with spillover effects on businesses. At the same time, banks are generating increased net interest income because of the development in interest rates. Increased earnings may counter the effect from higher impairment charges, which may be the result of the higher interest rates in the long term. In March, problems in specific foreign banks highlighted the need for sound risk management in banks – which includes a sufficient excess capital relative to the regulatory requirements.


Working Paper: Firm Cyclicality and Financial Frictions

Firms’ sensitivities to business cycles differ by size and age. The differences are large: “young and small firms” are more cyclical than large firms, whereas “old and small” firms are closer to acyclical. A heterogeneous-firm model with heterogeneous returns to scale can replicate these findings, and implies changes in the potency of different stabilisation policies.


Working Paper: A Fiscal Theory of Persistent Inflation

We develop a model with partially unfunded debt to propose a fiscal theory of persistent inflation. After the pandemic, unfunded fiscal shocks sustain the recovery, but also cause a persistent increase in inflation. The model predicts the inflationary effects of the ARPA stimulus out of sample and using real-time data.


Oversight of the financial infrastructure 2022

The report presents the conclusions of Danmarks Nationalbank’s oversight of the Danish payments infrastructure in 2022. The core payment and settlement systems as well as the key payment solutions comply with international safety and efficiency standards to a high degree. Continuous action is taken to counter the cyber threat, but it is not possible to implement safeguards that provide full protection against the most sophisticated attacks. It is therefore important to continue the work with crisis management planning and the ability to handle serious cyber incidents.


Working Paper: When credit expansions become troublesome: The story of investor sentiments

We decompose fluctuations in stock prices into fundamental and noise shocks and estimate their effects on credit. Both shocks lead to a credit expansion, but only a noise shock results in a reversal if the anticipated shock fails to realise. A novel debt overhang channel is important for the propagation of noise shocks.


DESTR is a robust anchor in the Danish capital market

The existence of a robust and reliable reference rate in Danish kroner is important for both financial market participants, companies and households since reference rates are used in a wide range of financial products, including bank loans, mortgage bonds and interest rate swaps as well as input for the valuation of financial assets. The Danish market should follow international standards by developing a liquid and well-functioning DESTR market across asset classes and market participants are encouraged to use DESTR as the primary reference rate in financial products going forward.


Outlook for the Danish economy – Declining but still high inflation

The significant tightening of monetary policy is helping to dampen inflation and take the pressure off the Danish economy. However, higher wage in-creases will sustain inflation in the coming years. Therefore, there is a need for a tight economic policy that does not add to inflation, and it is important that fiscal policy does not counter work monetary policy in bringing the inflation down. A tightening of fiscal policy may become relevant if the risk of a Danish wage-price spiral rises further.


Monetary and financial trends - Monetary policy will cool down the economy

Inflation remains too high, and central banks around the world have signalled that monetary policy interest rates need to be raised further. Danmarks Nationalbank has hiked monetary policy interest rates in tandem with the ECB, but twice at a lower rate than the ECB to weaken the value of the krone against the euro. Market and lending rates have increased as a consequence of tighter monetary policy. The effects of this are expected to dampen economic growth significantly in 2023 and 2024.


Annual report 2022

Danmarks Nationalbank posted a loss of kr. 8,464 million in 2022, against a profit of kr. 194 million in 2021. The loss was primarily due to capital losses on the bond portfolio as a result of the higher interest rate level.


Disclosure of climate footprint of the foreign exchange reserve: Background and methodology

For the first time, Danmarks Nationalbank discloses the climate footprint from the part of its foreign exchange reserve that is invested in securities issued by governments, regional authorities and companies. With the disclosure, Danmarks Nationalbank aims to contribute to greater transparency about the climate footprint of financial portfolios, in line with other European central banks.


Working Paper: Drivers of Real Interest Rates in A Two-country, General-equilibrium, OLG Model

We examine drivers of the equilibrium real interest rate in a two-country, general-equilibrium, OLG model. The model predicts that population growth, growth in technology, and increased longevity have reduced the equilibrium real interest rate by 2.25 percentage points from 1950 until today – and that these factors will pull it down by further 0.25 percentage points towards 2050. Differences in longevity may explain the build-up of the large Danish net foreign asset position.


Monetary History of Denmark 2005-2020

Volume 7 of Monetary History of Denmark covers the years 2005 to 2020. This period saw a global financial crisis and pressure on the Danish krone in 2008, a sovereign debt crisis in Europe from 2010 to 2012, a Danish krone crisis in 2015 and a prolonged upswing in the Danish economy which was brought to an abrupt end by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.


Oversight policy 2023

It is important for society that payments and securities transactions can be effected in a safe and efficient manner. Like other central banks, Danmarks Nationalbank contributes to this process by overseeing important parts of the financial infrastructure. Danmarks Nationalbank oversees the core payment and settlement systems in Denmark and the most important payment instruments. In addition, Danmarks Nationalbank contributes to other central banks’ oversight of international systems of relevance in Denmark. Danmarks Nationalbank’s policy for oversight is set out in this document.


Working Paper: The Danish Problem

Danmarks Nationalbank has been able to maintain the krone’s peg to the euro since the euro came into existence in 1999, and the krone’s peg to the Deutschmark and SDR for 17 years before that. This paper considers a series of hypotheses that may help to account for the exceptional nature of this case.


Real interest rates in the context of inflation and higher government debt

Since the 1980s, interest rates have gradually fallen across countries due to structural conditions. Although interest rates have risen sharply since 2020, there are indications that the conditions that contributed to the decline in interest rates are still present. However, new trends such as higher government debt, climate change, the green transition and changing trade patterns may potentially affect interest rates in the longer term.


Inflation – why did it rise and what are the drivers ahead?

The surge in inflation in 2021-22 reflects the covid-19 pandemic and Rus-sia’s war in Ukraine as well as the associated policy responses. In 2023-24, at least three factors are likely to drive inflation: (a) more stable energy prices, (b) an expected slowdown in aggregate demand growth caused in part by tighter monetary policy, and (c) improving supply chains.


Danish Government Borrowing and Debt 2022

A government budget surplus reduced central government debt by approximately kr. 115 billion to kr. 323 billion at the end of 2022, equal to just under 12 per cent of GDP. Rising interest rate levels in 2022 meant that the average yield to maturity on nominal government bonds issued in 2022 was 1.13 per cent p.a., which is the highest level since 2013. However, the rising interest rates do not affect interest costs on that part of the central government’s nominal debt which has already been raised.


Refinancing behaviour by homeowners in Denmark when mortgage rates rise

Rising mortgage rates have led to high mortgage refinancing activity in Denmark. The Danish mortgage system has a match-funding principle, and rising rates allow fixed-rate mortgage borrowers to buy back their mortgages at a discount. 62 per cent of this discount was used to reduce debt, while 38 per cent was cashed out. When cashing out, homeowners may become more sensitive to adverse developments in interest rates and house prices.


Refinancing wealth gains have reduced debt and may also support consumption

Many Danish homeowners have used interest rate increases to refinance their mortgages. When interest rates rise, the price of fixed-rate mortgage bonds falls, enabling homeowners to repay their loans at a price below the price of the loan when it was taken out. This means that homeowners can realise a net wealth gain, which they can use for various purposes. Danmarks Nationalbank’s economists have conducted a study of how these homeowners have spent their net wealth gain on. The study showed that most people have reduced their bank or mortgage debt. Others have chosen to extract cash to support consumption or savings at a time when rising interest rates and high inflation generally dampen economic activity.


Housing wealth and consumption during Covid-19

House prices increased considerably in Denmark during the pandemic, while consumption remained moderate. The marginal propensity to consume out of changes in housing wealth was modest in the years leading up to the pandemic. The largest housing wealth gains during the pandemic occurred among household segments with relatively low marginal propensities to consume.


Faroese economy - Economic upturn and growing reform needs

The Faroe Islands are experiencing an economic upturn with high fish prices, high employment and low unemployment. Despite the cyclical tailwinds, public finances are showing a deficit. The proportion of working-age adults will decline in the future, which increases the need for economically sustainable reforms


Strategy announcement - Central government borrowing strategy 2023

The government bond issuance target is set at kr. 65 billion in 2023. The focus will primarily be on issuances in the 2-year and 10-year nominal maturity segments. In February 2023, a new 10-year nominal bond will be opened. In the second half of the year, a new 10-year green bond will also be opened. In 2023, the central government expects to issue a foreign currency bond under the EMTN programme.


Do banks manage their flood risk exposures? Evidence from the Danish credit registry

Some regional banks are highly exposed to flood risk. Yet, there is little evidence that banks manage these exposures. The lack of flood risk management in these banks could worsen the adverse local economic impact of a flood. Therefore, banks should incorporate flood risk in their risk management.


Financial stability - Turbulent times call for a focus on risk management

The financial markets are characterised by high inflation, higher interest rates and considerable volatility. Higher interest rates, high inflation and the prevalence of risky loan types, combined with declining property prices, will lead to credit losses in banks. The weaker economic outlook underlines the need for prudence in the institutions’ capital planning.


The Greenlandic economy - Pressure on the economy and growing need for reform

Greenland has a booming economy and a marked need for foreign labour. Price increases remain modest due to the country’s special energy infrastructure. Although the Greenlandic economy is doing well, the Greenlandic politicians need to address a number of major challenges if growth is to continue. Fiscal policy is clearly unsustainable in the longer term and, in future, public expenditure cannot be funded under the current taxation rules. There is a growing need for reform of, e.g., the tax system and the education system.


Evaluating the macroprudential stance in a growth-at-risk framework

The ultimate objective of macroprudential policy is to contribute to financial stability by curbing the build-up of systemic risks and alleviating negative outcomes for the economy should risks materialize . Measuring and communicating whether policy goals are achieved is challenging, as financial crises are rare and risks are often only measurable in case they materialize. The memo outlines how growth-at-risk can be used to illustrate the objectives of macroprudential policy.


Effects of borrower-based regulation on housing demand

Borrower-based regulation, influencing housing buyers’ access to credit, would have different effects depending on buyer’s demographics, wealth and location. By modelling housing buyers’ preferences and budget constraints, we find that any such regulation would push demand to suburban areas. Limits on debt-to-income ratios (DTI) would mainly affect buyers in the largest cities; however, we find that the restrictions would not affect net demand for small apartments in Copenhagen.


Monetary and fiscal policy in Denmark

The primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain low and stable inflation. In Denmark the objective is achieved by pegging the Danish krone to the euro. This entails that Danish monetary policy tracks the monetary policy conducted by the European Central Bank. To the extent that developments in the Danish economy deviate from the euro area, domestic fiscal policy can be used as a tool for stabilisation.


Labour scarcity in Denmark: What role do foreign recruitments play?

This Economic Memo examines the role of international recruitments in the Danish labour market. It shows that while only a small share of new recruitments has tended to come from abroad, foreign labour has contributed markedly to employment growth in Denmark. Looking forward, Danish firms still appear to have the option of recruiting workers from abroad.


Working Paper: Walking the talk? Firm emissions and disclosure during the third phase of the EU emissions trading system

This study documents trends in emissions and emissions reporting for a sample of 141 large firms that were active within the EU Emissions Trading System during 2013–2019. Using text from annual reports, I document a rising share of information related to emissions. However, my measure of emissions talk is generally not predictive of past or future changes in firm emissions.


Corporate climate communication is not associated with fewer emissions

Companies are communicating more and more about efforts aimed at reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is no correlation between how much companies communicate about their emissions and the actual change in their emissions. This is one of the main findings in a new working paper.


Inequality and savings

This memo studies the impact of demographic shifts and income inequality on the evolution of savings rates in Denmark, and compares with evidence from the US. Income inequality has followed similar trends in Denmark as in the US, and savings rates vary in a similar way over the life cycle and along the income distribution in the two countries. Changes in savings behavior play an important role for the evolution of total savings.


Energy renovations of houses will pay for themselves by the heating bill – not by the sales price

The majority of energy renovations of houses cost more than they increase the sales price. This holds particularly in the metropolitan area and Aarhus, but also in a number of rural areas. Renovations that increase the sales price more than the renovation costs reduce CO2 emissions only marginally and are typically only possible for houses in and around the medium to large towns and more generally in the geographically more central parts of the country. (Memo available in Danish only).


Working Paper: Opportunities and risks in the residential sector during a green transition: House prices, energy renovations and rising energy prices

Higher energy prices reduce sales prices of houses without district heating in some rural areas. Most energy renovations do not increase sales prices beyond their costs. Those that do have little impact on CO2 emissions, are cheap, and are typically only possible for houses located in and around towns and mid-sized cities and more generally in the geographically more central parts of Denmark.


Outlook for the Danish economy - The pressure on the economy should be eased

Inflation is at 40-year high, and central banks across the world are currently tightening monetary policy. Together, these factors are dampening growth prospects for the Danish and international economies for the coming years. However, the combination of high inflation and a very tight Danish labour market carries the risk of self-reinforcing wage and price increases. Therefore, fiscal policy should help reduce the demand pressure as quickly as possible.


Monetary and financial trends - Tighter monetary policy has made financing more expensive

High inflation and rising inflation expectations have brought about a need to tighten monetary policy for central banks worldwide. Danmarks Nationalbank has followed the ECB's interest rate hikes in accordance with the fixed exchange rate policy. The tightening of monetary policy and developments in the financial markets have increased loan rates for Danish households and companies.


Working Paper: What do negative policy rate economies have in common?

Five economies, Denmark, the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan, have conducted negative interest rate policies. In this paper, we document that these economies have high levels of public as well as private savings, not matched by high investments, relative to other high-income non-NIRP OECD economies.


(Mis)matching in the post-pandemic Danish labour market

Since the beginning of the pandemic, matching in the Danish labour market seems to have become less efficient: a given number of job seekers and vacancies result in fewer matches than previously. This economic memo studies mismatch between job seekers and vacancies as a potential explanation. Mismatch was an important driver during the great financial crisis, but much less so during the pandemic.


Regulatory adjustments are to contribute to more effective capital buffers

The interaction between requirements limits capital buffer usability in Denmark. Financial regulation should therefore be adjusted, so that banks are not allowed to use the same capital to meet both capital buffer requirements and other requirements at the same time. This will improve the usability of capital buffers.


Working Paper: Segmentation of the Housing Market with Internet Data: Evidence from Denmark

In this paper, we introduce a novel tool for housing market analysis developed on the basis of online listings data from the largest real estate listing site in Denmark. The tool uses a combination of machine learning techniques to provide a data-driven segmentation of the housing market into meaningful submarkets that differ from administrative classifications. We demonstrate how the tool can support monitoring and research of underlying housing market developments in Denmark.


The rise in cash holdings of Danish companies

We show that the cash holdings of a typical Danish company have increased after the 2007/08 financial crisis. Especially the cash holdings of small companies have seen a strong increase. The increase in cash holdings coincides with a decrease in the use of loan financing for the typical company, which suggests a decrease in loan demand or supply to these companies. The development of cash holdings is also driven by a strong selection effect: companies with low cash holdings have been especially likely to exit during and after the financial crisis.


New types of digital money

The money we currently use in Denmark is well-functioning, and new types of digital money are likely to gain a foothold if they offer benefits for citizens and society. Danmarks Nationalbank is working to ensure access to secure and efficient money and payment solutions that are available to the whole society, also in the future. This applies regardless of the solution, provider or technology that may form the basis of new types of digital money.


Financial stability - Rising interest rates and prices can challenge banks’ customers

Housing lending is still driven by loans with deferred amortisation, and variable interest rate have become more prevalent. An amortisation requirement for homeowners with a high loan-to-value ratio may contribute to a more resilient housing market. The ability of some companies to service their debt is put under pressure by higher energy and commodity prices and an interest rate hike. (Appendix 1 has been revised 16. June 2022).


Strategy Announcement - Central government borrowing strategy in the 2nd half of 2022

The target for sales of domestic government bonds and short-term loan programmes in 2022 is kept at kr. 65 billion and kr. 35 billion, respectively. The on-the-run issues remain unchanged and focus will continue to be on issuance in the 2-year and 10-year nominal bonds including the green bond. In September, a new inflation-linked government bond will open.

​​​​​​​​​​Since 2014 Danmarks Nationalbank´s publications are issued only in electronic versions as PDF files and most of them also as ePub to use on tablets and smartphones. The electronic alternatives are of high quality, and there are many options for reading the publications on electronic devices.​ 

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Text may be copied from Danmarks Nationalbank's publications, provided that Danmarks Nationalbank is specifically stated as the source. Changes to or misrepresentation of the content are not permitted