All Danmarks Nationalbank´s publications

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24-11-2022

The Greenlandic economy - Pressure on the economy and growing need for reform

Greenland has a booming economy and a marked need for foreign labour. Price increases remain modest due to the country’s special energy infrastructure. Although the Greenlandic economy is doing well, the Greenlandic politicians need to address a number of major challenges if growth is to continue. Fiscal policy is clearly unsustainable in the longer term and, in future, public expenditure cannot be funded under the current taxation rules. There is a growing need for reform of, e.g., the tax system and the education system.

16-11-2022

Evaluating the macroprudential stance in a growth-at-risk framework

The ultimate objective of macroprudential policy is to contribute to financial stability by curbing the build-up of systemic risks and alleviating negative outcomes for the economy should risks materialize . Measuring and communicating whether policy goals are achieved is challenging, as financial crises are rare and risks are often only measurable in case they materialize. The memo outlines how growth-at-risk can be used to illustrate the objectives of macroprudential policy.

10-11-2022

Effects of borrower-based regulation on housing demand

Borrower-based regulation, influencing housing buyers’ access to credit, would have different effects depending on buyer’s demographics, wealth and location. By modelling housing buyers’ preferences and budget constraints, we find that any such regulation would push demand to suburban areas. Limits on debt-to-income ratios (DTI) would mainly affect buyers in the largest cities; however, we find that the restrictions would not affect net demand for small apartments in Copenhagen.

27-10-2022

Monetary and fiscal policy in Denmark

The primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain low and stable inflation. In Denmark the objective is achieved by pegging the Danish krone to the euro. This entails that Danish monetary policy tracks the monetary policy conducted by the European Central Bank. To the extent that developments in the Danish economy deviate from the euro area, domestic fiscal policy can be used as a tool for stabilisation.

24-10-2022

Labour scarcity in Denmark: What role do foreign recruitments play?

This Economic Memo examines the role of international recruitments in the Danish labour market. It shows that while only a small share of new recruitments has tended to come from abroad, foreign labour has contributed markedly to employment growth in Denmark. Looking forward, Danish firms still appear to have the option of recruiting workers from abroad.

05-10-2022

Working Paper: Walking the talk? Firm emissions and disclosure during the third phase of the EU emissions trading system

This study documents trends in emissions and emissions reporting for a sample of 141 large firms that were active within the EU Emissions Trading System during 2013–2019. Using text from annual reports, I document a rising share of information related to emissions. However, my measure of emissions talk is generally not predictive of past or future changes in firm emissions.

05-10-2022

Corporate climate communication is not associated with fewer emissions

Companies are communicating more and more about efforts aimed at reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is no correlation between how much companies communicate about their emissions and the actual change in their emissions. This is one of the main findings in a new working paper.

30-09-2022

Inequality and savings

This memo studies the impact of demographic shifts and income inequality on the evolution of savings rates in Denmark, and compares with evidence from the US. Income inequality has followed similar trends in Denmark as in the US, and savings rates vary in a similar way over the life cycle and along the income distribution in the two countries. Changes in savings behavior play an important role for the evolution of total savings.

27-09-2022

Energy renovations of houses will pay for themselves by the heating bill – not by the sales price

The majority of energy renovations of houses cost more than they increase the sales price. This holds particularly in the metropolitan area and Aarhus, but also in a number of rural areas. Renovations that increase the sales price more than the renovation costs reduce CO2 emissions only marginally and are typically only possible for houses in and around the medium to large towns and more generally in the geographically more central parts of the country. (Memo available in Danish only).

27-09-2022

Working Paper: Opportunities and risks in the residential sector during a green transition: House prices, energy renovations and rising energy prices

Higher energy prices reduce sales prices of houses without district heating in some rural areas. Most energy renovations do not increase sales prices beyond their costs. Those that do have little impact on CO2 emissions, are cheap, and are typically only possible for houses located in and around towns and mid-sized cities and more generally in the geographically more central parts of Denmark.

21-09-2022

Outlook for the Danish economy - The pressure on the economy should be eased

Inflation is at 40-year high, and central banks across the world are currently tightening monetary policy. Together, these factors are dampening growth prospects for the Danish and international economies for the coming years. However, the combination of high inflation and a very tight Danish labour market carries the risk of self-reinforcing wage and price increases. Therefore, fiscal policy should help reduce the demand pressure as quickly as possible.

21-09-2022

Monetary and financial trends - Tighter monetary policy has made financing more expensive

High inflation and rising inflation expectations have brought about a need to tighten monetary policy for central banks worldwide. Danmarks Nationalbank has followed the ECB's interest rate hikes in accordance with the fixed exchange rate policy. The tightening of monetary policy and developments in the financial markets have increased loan rates for Danish households and companies.

16-09-2022

Working Paper: What do negative policy rate economies have in common?

Five economies, Denmark, the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan, have conducted negative interest rate policies. In this paper, we document that these economies have high levels of public as well as private savings, not matched by high investments, relative to other high-income non-NIRP OECD economies.

02-09-2022

(Mis)matching in the post-pandemic Danish labour market

Since the beginning of the pandemic, matching in the Danish labour market seems to have become less efficient: a given number of job seekers and vacancies result in fewer matches than previously. This economic memo studies mismatch between job seekers and vacancies as a potential explanation. Mismatch was an important driver during the great financial crisis, but much less so during the pandemic.

30-08-2022

Regulatory adjustments are to contribute to more effective capital buffers

The interaction between requirements limits capital buffer usability in Denmark. Financial regulation should therefore be adjusted, so that banks are not allowed to use the same capital to meet both capital buffer requirements and other requirements at the same time. This will improve the usability of capital buffers.

11-08-2022

Working Paper: Segmentation of the Housing Market with Internet Data: Evidence from Denmark

In this paper, we introduce a novel tool for housing market analysis developed on the basis of online listings data from the largest real estate listing site in Denmark. The tool uses a combination of machine learning techniques to provide a data-driven segmentation of the housing market into meaningful submarkets that differ from administrative classifications. We demonstrate how the tool can support monitoring and research of underlying housing market developments in Denmark.

08-08-2022

The rise in cash holdings of Danish companies

We show that the cash holdings of a typical Danish company have increased after the 2007/08 financial crisis. Especially the cash holdings of small companies have seen a strong increase. The increase in cash holdings coincides with a decrease in the use of loan financing for the typical company, which suggests a decrease in loan demand or supply to these companies. The development of cash holdings is also driven by a strong selection effect: companies with low cash holdings have been especially likely to exit during and after the financial crisis.

23-06-2022

New types of digital money

The money we currently use in Denmark is well-functioning, and new types of digital money are likely to gain a foothold if they offer benefits for citizens and society. Danmarks Nationalbank is working to ensure access to secure and efficient money and payment solutions that are available to the whole society, also in the future. This applies regardless of the solution, provider or technology that may form the basis of new types of digital money. Danmarks Nationalbank is planning to organise a conference on new types of digital money in the 4th quarter of 2022.

09-06-2022

Financial stability - Rising interest rates and prices can challenge banks’ customers

Housing lending is still driven by loans with deferred amortisation, and variable interest rate have become more prevalent. An amortisation requirement for homeowners with a high loan-to-value ratio may contribute to a more resilient housing market. The ability of some companies to service their debt is put under pressure by higher energy and commodity prices and an interest rate hike. (Appendix 1 has been revised 16. June 2022).

09-06-2022

Strategy Announcement - Central government borrowing strategy in the 2nd half of 2022

The target for sales of domestic government bonds and short-term loan programmes in 2022 is kept at kr. 65 billion and kr. 35 billion, respectively. The on-the-run issues remain unchanged and focus will continue to be on issuance in the 2-year and 10-year nominal bonds including the green bond. In September, a new inflation-linked government bond will open.

01-06-2022

Explaining the Danish-German sovereign yield spread

This economic memo investigates the drivers of the Danish-German 10-year yield spread, which has widened 25 basis points since January 2020. The widening is found to be driven mainly by larger collateral scarcity of German sovereign bonds due to the ECB’s significant bond purchases and a substantial increase in duration on callable Danish mortgage bonds.

24-05-2022

Working Paper: Wage Effects of Labor Market Tightness

In this Working Paper, I examine to what extent labor shortage leads to higher wages. If the shortage of the occupations demanded by a firm increases, wages will increase, too. The wages increases are, however, relatively modest.

04-05-2022

Oversight of the financial infrastructure 2021

The report presents the conclusions of Danmarks Nationalbank’s oversight of the Danish payments infrastructure in 2021. The core payment and settlement systems and the key payment solutions extensively comply with international standards for safety and efficiency. Work is being done across the sector to strengthen cyber resilience. Changes in the risk outlook, including new derived risks, mean that this resilience must be continuously developed.

02-05-2022

Looking beyond the impact of energy prices: What drives trend inflation in Denmark?

Before the pandemic, wage and price inflation remained low in Denmark and other advanced economies, despite falling unemployment rates. We attribute the subdued inflation to low competition among firms to hire employed workers. This same force may continue to constrain inflation once the current rise in energy and commodity prices has been passed through to consumer prices.

22-04-2022

Market concentration and the Danish rental market

This memo analyzes the evolution of firm ownership concentration in the private Danish rental market and its link to rental prices. We show that the overall increase in rental market concentration between 2010 and 2020 is mainly driven by the rental market in the Capital Region. Further, we document a positive empirical link between market concentration and rental prices.

08-04-2022

Higher gas prices can lead to lower house prices in parts of Denmark

The price of natural gas has risen significantly since the summer of 2021. Higher heating costs may put downward pressure on homes heated with gas. Seen in isolation, the average price drop will be DKK 73,000 for a house with gas, if the gas price develops in line with the expectations of financial markets. (Memo available in Danish only).

01-04-2022

Five suggestions for banks that want to use artificial intelligence

Banks and insurance and pension companies are increasingly developing systems that use artificial intelligence. This news outlines five suggestions from Danmarks Nationalbank’s data experts, which financial companies should have increased focus on in order to live up to both ethics and legislation when entering this area.

01-04-2022

AI and machine learning in the financial sector: Five focus points

Artificial intelligence (AI) can improve the resiliency of both individual financial institutions and the financial sector as a whole. Yet, its users must balance benefits and risks of these technologies. This paper illustrates five focus points which financial institutions should consider when moving from traditional models to complex AI systems.

16-03-2022

Outlook for the Danish economy - War in Ukraine dampens growth and increases inflation

War in Ukraine has in short time become a new and destabilising factor in Danish and global economy. It dampens growth and increase inflation at a time, when inflation and capacity utilisation is already high. Danish economy is in general robust and able to handle new challenges, and is expected to enter a pause in growth. However, there are risks of a fall in activity.

16-03-2022

Monetary and financial trends - Rising inflation and Russian invasion have increased volatility

Rising inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have led to increased volatility in the financial markets over the past six months. Both short-term and long-term mortgage rates have increased significantly, and equity prices have fallen, leading to tighter financial conditions. (Released in Danish March, 16)

16-03-2022

Annual Report 2021

Danmarks Nationalbank posted a profit of kr. 194 million in 2021 against a profit of kr. 1,616 million in 2020. Gold stock and equity exposure contributed significantly to the profit for the year.

16-03-2022

Pressure on the labour market during the pandemic

The Danish labour market has tightened substantially during the recovery of the Danish economy. Pandemic-related labour demand can account for some of the employment growth. The majority of the movements on the labour market have occurred among marginal jobs, and cross-sectoral movements have been slightly higher than usual.

03-03-2022

The use of cash in society

Danmarks Nationalbank has conducted a survey of the use of cash in Denmark. Danes are relying less and less on cash when paying for goods and services in stores, but cash is still used as a store of value and for person-to-person payments. For instance, more than one in three Danes hold cash savings.

22-02-2022

Denmark is among the most digitalised countries when it comes to payments

Danmarks Nationalbank has conducted a survey of the payment behaviour of Danish households. In Denmark, most payments in physical trade and person to person are digital. Digital behaviour is broadly anchored in the population, and the digital behaviour of senior citizens is a key element in making Denmark one of the most digitalised countries when it comes to payments.

10-02-2022

Danish Government Borrowing and Debt 2021

A government budget surplus led to a decrease in central government debt by approximately kr. 100 billion to kr. 438 billion at the end of 2021, equal to just under 18 per cent of GDP. Central government debt, as a share of GDP, has thus fallen to its lowest level since 2009. Again in 2021, borrowing flexibility was crucial to the central government. The flexibility made it possible gradually to reduce issuances by the central government, in line with improvements in government finances.

04-02-2022

The impact of digitalisation on Danish companies and workers

This memo explores the impact of digitalisation on Danish workers and companies. For this, we first build two complementary measures of digitalisation that leverage Danish administrative data. We then document a positive association between the level of digitalisation and sales of large companies. In the final part, we study the workers in the IT sector – the producers of the digital tools. We find that the workforce in the IT sector is more specialised than the rest of the Danish workforce, and that this specialisation has increased during the past decade.

27-01-2022

Investors pay a premium for green equities

This analysis examines whether investors are willing to pay a higher price for a company with low CO2e emissions relative to a corresponding company with higher emissions. The analysis finds, other things being equal, that companies with lower emissions have a higher equity price. The reason for the higher price is found to be that their future earnings are connected with lower risks than comparable companies with higher emissions e.g. due to the prospect of a future carbon tax.

13-01-2022

Working Paper: Job Retention during the Covid-19 Pandemic

This paper examines the labor market effects of the Danish wage compensation scheme for employees during the covid-19 pandemic. The scheme prevented job losses, especially for low-tenured workers, but led to a decline in furloughed workers’ labor income. Labor market mobility was basically unaffected.

22-12-2021

New inflation-linked bond helps to ensure a broad investor base

In the 2nd half of 2022, the Danish central government opens a new inflation-linked bond maturing in 2034. Inflation-linked bonds issued by the Danish central government enable investors to invest in a safe asset whose return tracks Danish consumer price inflation. The main reason why the central government continues to issue inflation-linked bonds is to ensure a broad and stable investor base.

22-12-2021

Strategy announcement - Central government borrowing strategy 2022

The target for sales of domestic government bonds and short-term loan programmes in 2022 is kr. 65 billion and kr. 35 billion, respectively. On 19 January, a green 10-year bond with maturity in 2031 will be opened. A new inflation-linked bond with maturity in 2034 will also be opened in the 2nd half of the year. Issuance will be focused in the 2-year and 10-year maturity segments.

20-12-2021

Working Paper: Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt Unity is Strength

We study the implications of a coordinated fiscal and monetary strategy aiming at creating a controlled rise of inflation to wear away a targeted fraction of debt. Under this strategy, the fiscal authority introduces an emergency budget with no provisions on how it will be balanced, while the monetary authority tolerates a temporary increase in inflation to accommodate the emergency budget.

17-12-2021

The foreign exchange market for kroner is able to absorb large company acquisitions

In the recent years Danish companies have increasingly acquired foreign companies and vice versa. The size of some company acquisitions surpasses the daily turnover in the foreign exchange market for kroner. A case study in this Economic Memo shows that large company acquisitions have not exacerbated krone exchange rate movements over and above the normal daily variation. (Memo available in Danish only).

16-12-2021

Assessment of Kronos2

Danmarks Nationalbank has assessed Kronos2 against international principles for safe and efficient payment systems. Kronos2 is used for settlement of payments between banks etc. and is a central payment system in the Danish payments infrastructure. The main conclusion of the assessment is that Kronos2 to a large extent complies with the principles. A few areas with potential for improvement have been identified.

14-12-2021

Domestic bond portfolio adjustments during duration jumps

This Memo investigates the bond portfolio reaction of key Danish institutional investors to duration jumps in callable mortgage bonds. It shows that the investors remain net buyers of Danish mortgage bonds during periods of jumps. In particular, they buy more than they do on average, supporting the Danish mortgage bond market, limiting a potential self-reinforcing mechanism of duration jumps.

10-12-2021

Do strategic interaction effects drive excess capital financing of banks?

In this memo we find empirical evidence consistent with the hypothesis that banks act strategically to finance themselves through similar levels of excess capital to their competitors. We find that this channel is a significant driver of banks’ choice of excess capital but not the most important one.

09-12-2021

Working Paper: House Prices, Increasing Returns, and the Effects of Government Spending Shocks

We report new regional evidence indicating that U.S. house prices increase after positive shocks to fiscal spending. In sharp contrast to this, house prices fall in conventional DSGE models. We construct a model featuring endogenous firm entry and taste for variety, which can generate a positive response of house prices to fiscal spending.

02-12-2021

Financial stability - Increased risks in credit institutions' housing lending

Credit institutions are granting more housing loans to highly indebted homeowners. High loan-to-value ratios may cause vulnerabilities to a sub-sequent fall in house prices. A general requirement for higher down payments and instalments on loans to homeowners with a high loan-to-value ratio may contribute to a more resilient housing market.

02-12-2021

A few of the largest banks are close to buffer requirements under stress

The stress test shows that the banks have sufficient capital to withstand a severe recession scenario, but a few of the systemic banks are close to their buffer requirements. However, the situation would be different for several of the systemic banks if their capital was on a par with their capital target on commencement of the stress test. In this case, several banks would experience significant breaches of the buffer requirements under stress.

30-11-2021

Working Paper: Firm financing and public support measures during the pandemic

This paper studies Danish firms' debt financing decisions during covid-19 with a focus on the impact of government support measures. Credit growth has been modest during the pandemic. Public liquidity measures such as deferred tax and VAT payments served as a substitute for more traditional debt funding sources.

29-11-2021

Nonbanks, credit provision and the transmission of monetary policy in Denmark

We analyse the role of nonbank lenders in corporate and consumer credit markets in Denmark and show that they affect the transmission of monetary policy to financial and real outcomes. Nonbanks increase their share of credit supply after an interest rate hike in both the consumer and corporate credit markets.

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