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Financial stability - Interest rate hikes affect the banks and their customers

Higher interest rates and consumer prices are draining the resilience of household customers, with spillover effects on businesses. At the same time, banks are generating increased net interest income because of the development in interest rates. Increased earnings may counter the effect from higher impairment charges, which may be the result of the higher interest rates in the long term. In March, problems in specific foreign banks highlighted the need for sound risk management in banks – which includes a sufficient excess capital relative to the regulatory requirements.


DESTR is a robust anchor in the Danish capital market

The existence of a robust and reliable reference rate in Danish kroner is important for both financial market participants, companies and households since reference rates are used in a wide range of financial products, including bank loans, mortgage bonds and interest rate swaps as well as input for the valuation of financial assets. The Danish market should follow international standards by developing a liquid and well-functioning DESTR market across asset classes and market participants are encouraged to use DESTR as the primary reference rate in financial products going forward.


Outlook for the Danish economy – Declining but still high inflation

The significant tightening of monetary policy is helping to dampen inflation and take the pressure off the Danish economy. However, higher wage in-creases will sustain inflation in the coming years. Therefore, there is a need for a tight economic policy that does not add to inflation, and it is important that fiscal policy does not counter work monetary policy in bringing the inflation down. A tightening of fiscal policy may become relevant if the risk of a Danish wage-price spiral rises further.


Monetary and financial trends - Monetary policy will cool down the economy

Inflation remains too high, and central banks around the world have signalled that monetary policy interest rates need to be raised further. Danmarks Nationalbank has hiked monetary policy interest rates in tandem with the ECB, but twice at a lower rate than the ECB to weaken the value of the krone against the euro. Market and lending rates have increased as a consequence of tighter monetary policy. The effects of this are expected to dampen economic growth significantly in 2023 and 2024.


Real interest rates in the context of inflation and higher government debt

Since the 1980s, interest rates have gradually fallen across countries due to structural conditions. Although interest rates have risen sharply since 2020, there are indications that the conditions that contributed to the decline in interest rates are still present. However, new trends such as higher government debt, climate change, the green transition and changing trade patterns may potentially affect interest rates in the longer term.


Faroese economy - Economic upturn and growing reform needs

The Faroe Islands are experiencing an economic upturn with high fish prices, high employment and low unemployment. Despite the cyclical tailwinds, public finances are showing a deficit. The proportion of working-age adults will decline in the future, which increases the need for economically sustainable reforms


Strategy announcement - Central government borrowing strategy 2023

The government bond issuance target is set at kr. 65 billion in 2023. The focus will primarily be on issuances in the 2-year and 10-year nominal maturity segments. In February 2023, a new 10-year nominal bond will be opened. In the second half of the year, a new 10-year green bond will also be opened. In 2023, the central government expects to issue a foreign currency bond under the EMTN programme.


Financial stability - Turbulent times call for a focus on risk management

The financial markets are characterised by high inflation, higher interest rates and considerable volatility. Higher interest rates, high inflation and the prevalence of risky loan types, combined with declining property prices, will lead to credit losses in banks. The weaker economic outlook underlines the need for prudence in the institutions’ capital planning.


The Greenlandic economy - Pressure on the economy and growing need for reform

Greenland has a booming economy and a marked need for foreign labour. Price increases remain modest due to the country’s special energy infrastructure. Although the Greenlandic economy is doing well, the Greenlandic politicians need to address a number of major challenges if growth is to continue. Fiscal policy is clearly unsustainable in the longer term and, in future, public expenditure cannot be funded under the current taxation rules. There is a growing need for reform of, e.g., the tax system and the education system.


Monetary and fiscal policy in Denmark

The primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain low and stable inflation. In Denmark the objective is achieved by pegging the Danish krone to the euro. This entails that Danish monetary policy tracks the monetary policy conducted by the European Central Bank. To the extent that developments in the Danish economy deviate from the euro area, domestic fiscal policy can be used as a tool for stabilisation.


Outlook for the Danish economy - The pressure on the economy should be eased

Inflation is at 40-year high, and central banks across the world are currently tightening monetary policy. Together, these factors are dampening growth prospects for the Danish and international economies for the coming years. However, the combination of high inflation and a very tight Danish labour market carries the risk of self-reinforcing wage and price increases. Therefore, fiscal policy should help reduce the demand pressure as quickly as possible.


Monetary and financial trends - Tighter monetary policy has made financing more expensive

High inflation and rising inflation expectations have brought about a need to tighten monetary policy for central banks worldwide. Danmarks Nationalbank has followed the ECB's interest rate hikes in accordance with the fixed exchange rate policy. The tightening of monetary policy and developments in the financial markets have increased loan rates for Danish households and companies.


Regulatory adjustments are to contribute to more effective capital buffers

The interaction between requirements limits capital buffer usability in Denmark. Financial regulation should therefore be adjusted, so that banks are not allowed to use the same capital to meet both capital buffer requirements and other requirements at the same time. This will improve the usability of capital buffers.


New types of digital money

The money we currently use in Denmark is well-functioning, and new types of digital money are likely to gain a foothold if they offer benefits for citizens and society. Danmarks Nationalbank is working to ensure access to secure and efficient money and payment solutions that are available to the whole society, also in the future. This applies regardless of the solution, provider or technology that may form the basis of new types of digital money.


Financial stability - Rising interest rates and prices can challenge banks’ customers

Housing lending is still driven by loans with deferred amortisation, and variable interest rate have become more prevalent. An amortisation requirement for homeowners with a high loan-to-value ratio may contribute to a more resilient housing market. The ability of some companies to service their debt is put under pressure by higher energy and commodity prices and an interest rate hike. (Appendix 1 has been revised 16. June 2022).


Strategy Announcement - Central government borrowing strategy in the 2nd half of 2022

The target for sales of domestic government bonds and short-term loan programmes in 2022 is kept at kr. 65 billion and kr. 35 billion, respectively. The on-the-run issues remain unchanged and focus will continue to be on issuance in the 2-year and 10-year nominal bonds including the green bond. In September, a new inflation-linked government bond will open.