Research

In 2016, Danmarks Nationalbank established a new, independent Research Unit, to support the policy decisions of Danmarks Nationalbank by providing a conceptual framework to assess policy-making challenges, and economic models and tools to analyse the economy. Economists in the Research Unit are expected to produce high-quality research to be published in refereed journals and to participate in the international academic and central banking debate. The Research Unit runs the Danmarks Nationalbank PhD Program, and is part of the Economics and Monetary Policy Department. Economists throughout all core departments at Danmarks Nationalbank conduct research in a wide variety of areas in Macroeconomics and Finance.

The Economists: The Research Unit is led by Federico Ravenna. A full list of economists currently engaged in research at Danmarks Nationalbank is available here.

The CopenhagenMacro Network: Danmarks Nationalbank hosts the CopenhagenMacro network of economists. The CopenhagenMacro calendar lists research events held at institutions in the Copenhagen area.

Ph.D. Student Program: If you would like to know more or apply, additional information is available here.

Published Download Title
12-02-2021

Working Paper: The Value of Bond Underwriter Relationships

This paper analyzes the role of underwriters for issuers of corporate bonds. The results suggest that – in terms of issuance costs – bond issuers benefit from using underwriters they have used before, but, at the same time, this exposes the issuer to a credit risk spillover from the underwriter.

08-02-2021

Working Paper: Are Climate Change Risks Priced in the US Stock Market?

We construct proxies of physical and transition risks by conducting textual analysis of climate news. Using U.S. stock prices, we find that only the short-term risks elicited by the political debate are priced. Longer running risks elicited by news on international summits, global warming and natural disasters are not priced.

02-02-2021

Working Paper: How news affects sectoral stock prices through earnings expectations and risk premia

We show that the transmission of news to prices goes through a combination of changing earnings expectations and risk premia. Price changes for especially the financial sector are mainly driven by changes in equity risk premia, while changes in earnings expectations play a comparatively larger role for other sectors.

26-01-2021

Working Paper: QE in a quasi-preferred habitat: The case of the Danish pension sector and the ECB asset purchase programme

The reaction of Danish pension companies to ECB’s asset purchase programme is analysed using a novel, in-house data set. The pension companies sold euro bonds and bought Danish bonds in the first months following the introduction of the ECB purchase programme in 2015. After a short while, the pension companies returned as buyers of euro bonds.

21-12-2020

Working Paper: Labor cost pass-through to producer prices in Denmark

We estimate the pass-through of a wage shock to producer prices of firms in Denmark. Our results suggest that the pass-through elasticity of wage increases to prices amounts to about one third. Our results are in line with studies of earlier time periods and confirm an important causal relationship between wages and prices.

24-11-2020

Working Paper: Uncertainty and the real economy: Evidence from Denmark

The language in news articles can be used to measure the perceived level of economic uncertainty. In a model of the Danish economy, increased uncertainty contributed significantly to the drop in investments during the Sovereign Debt Crisis. So far, uncertainty has had a smaller impact on investments during the COVID-19 pandemic.

19-11-2020

Working Paper: Do firms behave differently when nominal interest rates are below zero?

Denmark was the first country in the world to move its key monetary policy rate below zero. Using rich microdata and an event study framework, we find that firms exposed to negative deposit rates to a higher degree than other firms increase their fixed investments and employment.

11-11-2020

Working Paper: Worker heterogeneity, selection, and employment dynamics in the face of aggregate demand and pandemic shocks

We model a COVID recession resulting from a negative demand shock and the need for social distancing, considering the US economy as an example. Low-productivity workers suffer a protracted surge in unemployment and inefficient separations from firms. Unemployment is amplified when nominal interest rates are close to the effective lower bound.

26-10-2020

Working Paper: The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area

A statistical model for euro area macroeconomic aggregates shows that an increase in uncertainty and disagreement about the economic outlook impacts the economy three times as much if the outlook is pessimistic. This result implies that the uncertainty generated by COVID-19 can lead to a 15.1% fall in industrial production.

21-09-2020

Working Paper: Spending when illiquid savings become liquid: Evidence from Danish wage earners

This paper offers new empirical evidence on the marginal propensity to consume out of an unanticipated liquidity shock. The results show a 43 dollar spending increase for each 100 dollar increase in liquid resources. The estimated spending patterns are consistent with the notion of wealthy hand-to-mouth behaviour.

News from Research

15 February 2021
Dataset: Climate Risk Factors from "Are Climate Change Risks Priced in the U.S. Stock Market?", Faccini, Matin and Skiadopoulos. Danmarks Nationalbank Working Paper, February 2021, No. 169.

climate_time_series.xlsx