Climate Change, Pandemics, Monetary Policy: New Approaches in Crisis Time

Abstract icon The seventh annual meeting on New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis, organised by Danmarks Nationalbank, Deutsche Bundesbank and Norges Bank.

Online Conference, 9 December 2020

Danmarks Nationalbank, Deutsche Bundesbank and Norges Bank organize a joint conference on new modeling approaches and novel empirical evidence on the challenges to policy provided by the recent medium and long-term changes in the economy. How have climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic changed our outlook on the use of economic and fiscal policy? How has our understanding of monetary policy evolved during the recent global crisis? Are we witnessing a fundamental reshaping in the nature of the shocks and the allocation of risks through the economy?

The meeting will be the seventh in the annual conference series New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis bringing together economists from academia and central banks. The 2020 conference focuses on creating networking and interaction across scholars.

Pandemics and Climate Change Sessions - Call for Papers

Two parallel sessions on Pandemics and on Climate Change will feature short presentations, allowing for in-depth discussion with the authors. Each presenter will also introduce the discussion of another paper in the session. Theoretical and empirical contributions are welcome.

If you would like to present your research on either Pandemics/Covid-19 or Climate Change, please submit your paper to by 25 November 2020. Authors of accepted papers will be notified by 30 November 2020.

Monetary Policy Sessions

Three sessions on Monetary Policy will each feature two closely related papers presented by invited speakers. Coupled papers will explore the same question from different perspectives, or drawing on different results. Speakers include Pierpaolo Benigno (Luiss University and University of Bern), Yann Koby (Princeton University) and Joe Vavra (University of Chicago).

Conference Program, 9 December 2020

Times given in Central European Time (UCT+1).

​12:50 - 13:00
​Welcome by Per Callesen (Governor, Danmarks Nationalbank) and Federico Ravenna (Head of Research, Danmarks Nationalbank)
​13:00 - 14:40
Parallel Session A: Climate Change
Chair: Federico Ravenna (Danmarks Nationalbank)

Pricing Carbon-Transition Risk
Patrick Bolton (Columbia University, Imperial College, CEPR, and NBER) and Marcin Kacperczyk (Imperial College and CEPR)
Discounting Climate Change Mitigation Projects: A Disaster-Based Asset Pricing Model
Maria Gelrud (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania) and Jessica A. Wachter (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

Self-fulfilling Prophecies in Directed Technical Change
Sjak Smulders (CentER, Tilburg University) and Sophie Zhou (Deutsche Bundesbank)

How Should Climate Change Uncertainty Impact Social Valuation and Policy?
Michael Barnett (ASU), William A. Brock (Wisconsin) and Lars Peter Hansen (University of Chicago)
​13:00 - 14:40
Parallel Session B: Climate Change
Chair: Christoph Meinerding (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Michael D. Bauer (Universitaet Hamburg and CESifo) and Glenn D. Rudebusch (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Are Climate Change Risks Priced in the U.S. Stock Market?
Renato Faccini (Danmarks Nationalbank, Centre for Macroeconomics - LSE), Rastin Matin (Danmarks Nationalbank), George Skiadopoulos (University of Piraeus, Queen Mary University of London)

Vegard H. Larsen (Norges Bank), Leif Anders Thorsrud (BI Norwegian Business School) and Felix Kapfhammer (BI Norwegian Business School)

Alexander M. Dietrich (University of Tuebingen), Gernot J. Mueller (University of Tuebingen, CEPR and CESifo) and Raphael S. Schoenle (Brandeis University and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, CEPR and CESifo)
​13:00 - 14:40
Parallel Session C: Pandemics
Chair: Drago Bergholt (Norges Bank)

Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility
Andrea Carriero (Queen Mary University of London), Todd Clark (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), Massimiliano Marcellino (Bocconi University, IGIER and CEPR) and Elmar Mertens (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Antoine Lepetit (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and Cristina Fuentes-Albero (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier
Florin O. Bilbiie (University of Lausanne and CEPR) and Marc J. Melitz (Harvard University, CEPR, and NBER)

Daniel L. Greenwald (MIT Sloan School of Management), John Krainer (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve) and Pascal Paul (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
​13:00 - 14:40
​Parallel Session D: Pandemics
Chair: Genevieve Nelson (Danmarks Nationalbank)

Mikkel Bess (Danmarks Nationalbank), Erik Grenestam (Danmarks Nationalbank), Alessandro Martinello (Danmarks Nationalbank) and Jesper Pedersen (Danmarks Nationalbank)

Nowcasting Norwegian Household Consumption with Debit Card Transaction Data
Knut Are Aastveit (Norges Bank, BI Norwegian Business School), Tuva Marie Fastbø (Norges Bank), Elenora Granziera (Norges Bank), Kenneth Sætherhagen Paulsen (Norges Bank) and Kjersti Næss Torstensen (Norges Bank)

Òscar Jordà (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco San Francisco, University of California at Davis), Sanjay R. Singh (University of California at Davis) and Alan M. Taylor (University of California at Davis, CEPR, NBER)

Martin Eichenbaum (Northwestern University), Miguel Godinho de Matos (Catolica Lisbon School of Business and Economics), Francisco Lima (Statistics Portugal and CEG-IST), Sergio Rebelo (Northwestern University), Mathias Trabandt (Freie Universitaet Berlin, DIW and IWH)
​14:40 - 15:00
​15:00 - 16:00
First Session on Monetary Policy
Chair: Francesco Furlanetto (Norges Bank)

The Reversal Interest Rate
Markus K. Brunnermeier (Princeton University) and Yann Koby (Princeton University, Brown University)

Monetary Policy at Ground Level: Bank Loan Market Power and Risk-taking
Philipp König (Deutsche Bundesbank) and Eva Schliephake (Catolica Lisbon)
​16:00 - 17:00
Second Session on Monetary Policy
Chair: Emanuel Moench (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength
Francesco Bianchi (Duke University, CEPR, NBER), Renato Faccini (Danmarks Nationalbank, Centre for Macroeconomics - LSE) and Leonardo Melosi (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, EUI, CEPR)

The Economics of Helicopter Money
Pierpaolo Benigno (University of Bern and EIEF) and Salvatore Nistico (Sapienza University of Rome)
​17:00 - 18:00
​Third Session on Monetary Policy
Chair: Federico Ravenna (Danmarks Nationalbank)

Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy
David Berger (Duke University, NBER), Konstantin Milbradt (Northwestern University, NBER), Fabrice Tourre (Copenhagen Business School) and Joseph Vavra (University of Chicago and NBER)

State Dependence of Monetary Policy Across Business, Credit and Interest Rate Cycles
Sami Alpanda (University of Central Florida), Eleonora Granziera (Norges Bank), Sarah Zubairy (Texas A&M University)

Program Committee: Franchesco Furlanetto (Norges Bank), Emanuel Mönch (Deutsche Bundesbank), Denis Gorea and Federico Ravenna (Danmarks Nationalbank).

For more information, contact:

Previous Conferences

The program for the previous editions of the New Developments in Business Cycle Analysis conference:

Program Committee

Franchesco Furlanetto
Norges Bank

Emanuel Mönch
Deutsche Bundesbank

Denis Gorea
Danmarks Nationalbank

Federico Ravenna
Danmarks Nationalbank