Statistical news focuses on the latest figures and trends in Danmarks Nationalbank’s statistics. Statistical news is targeted at people who want quick insight into current financial data.
Expected house price increase of 4.4 per cent over the next 12 months
Since October 2024, Danmarks Nationalbank has surveyed Danish residents each month about their expectations regarding the economy, including house prices. Since the launch of the survey, the median expectation for house price developments over the next 12 months has remained relatively stable. This is shown by new statistics based on Danmarks Nationalbank’s Expectations Survey, which are being published for the first time today. This Statistical News release is one of several that will, over the coming months, introduce five new statistical tables based on Danmarks Nationalbank’s Expectations Survey. All five tables are now available in the StatBank.
Stable median expectation for house price developments, but expectations have become more dispersed
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The chart shows the median, lower quartile and upper quartile for the indicator “Expectations of changes in house prices in one's municipality (the next 12 months)” from table DNNFU5 in the StatBank. Find the data here (link).
Danes’ expectations are measured by the median and the dispersion
When Danish residents in September have a median expectation of 4.4 per cent for house price developments in their municipality over the next 12 months, this means that half expect house prices to increase by less than 4.4 per cent, while the other half expect increases of more than 4.4 per cent.
Although the median expectation has remained relatively stable since the launch of the survey, the dispersion of expectations regarding house price developments has increased. At the beginning of the survey, the middle half of expectations (from the lower to the upper quartile) ranged between 2 and 6 per cent. Today, this range extends from 2 to 8 per cent, and the upper quartile reached around 10 per cent in early 2026. Data on Danes’ expectations regarding house price increases can be found here (link).
Expectations for house prices vary across the country
There are significant geographical differences in expectations for house price developments. In Region Hovedstaden (the Capital Region) and Region Sjælland (Sealand), residents expect house prices to increase by 4.8 per cent over the next 12 months. By comparison, the expected increase is 4.2 per cent in the Region Midtjylland (Central Denmark), 3.8 per cent in Region Syddanmark (Southern Denmark) and 3.0 per cent in Region Nordjylland (Northern Denmark).
There are also differences in how closely aligned residents’ expectations are within each region. In some regions, expectations are relatively similar, while in others they span a wider range. Looking at the entire period, higher expectations for house price increases in Region Hovedstaden (the Capital Region) have been a key contributor to the rise in the highest expectations observed at the national level.
Residents in Region Hovedstaden and Region Sjælland have the highest median expectations for house price increases
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The illustration shows the median for August and September 2026 by region for the indicator “Expectations of changes in house prices in one's municipality (the next 12 months)” from table DNNFU5 in the Statistics Database. Find the data here (link).
About Danmarks Nationalbank's Expectations Survey
In Danmarks Nationalbank's Expectations Survey, a sample of residents in Denmark is invited each month to answer a range of questions about their expectations regarding the economy, including income, inflation, interest rates, consumption and house prices.
Read more about why Danmarks Nationalbank asks Danes about their expectations here (link).
The results of the survey are published as aggregated statistics in the StatBank (link), thereby contributing to public knowledge about expectation formation. People's expectations about the future influence how they spend, borrow and invest money.
The figures in the statistics reflect the expectations of Danish residents, not Danmarks Nationalbank's forecast.
Each table in the StatBank contains data for overall expectations as well as four separate breakdowns of the population. These breakdowns are created by linking survey responses with register data from Statistics Denmark. The four breakdowns are age, income, gender and region.
In connection with the launch of the new statistics, Danmarks Nationalbank will publish a series of Statistical News releases before the end of the year, introducing each of the five new tables. This Statistical News release introduces the table on housing expectations (link).