Statistical news focuses on the latest figures and trends in Danmarks Nationalbank’s statistics. Statistical news is targeted at people who want quick insight into current financial data.
Expected income increase of 2.2 per cent over the next 12 months
Since October 2024, Danmarks Nationalbank has surveyed Danish residents each month about their expectations regarding the economy, including their income. Since the launch of the survey, the median expectation for nominal income growth over the next 12 months has remained relatively stable. At the same time, there has been considerable variation in what Danes expect. This is shown by new statistics based on Danmarks Nationalbank's Expectations Survey, which are being published for the first time today. This Statistical News release is one of several, that will introduce five new statistical tables based on Danmarks Nationalbank's Expectations Survey over the coming months. All five tables are now available in the StatBank.
Stable median expectation for income growth
Note:
The chart shows the median, lower quartile and upper quartile for the indicator “Expectations of changes in own income (the next 12 months)” from table DNNFU1 in the StatBank. Find the data here (link).
Danes' expectations are measured by the median and the dispersion
A median expectation of 2.2 per cent for nominal income growth over the next 12 months means that half of Danes expect their income to increase by less than 2.2 per cent, while the other half expect an increase of more than 2.2 per cent.
The lower and upper quartiles indicate the thresholds for the quarter of respondents with the lowest expectations and the quarter with the highest expectations, respectively. Since the start of the survey, the upper quartile has remained stable at around 5 per cent, while the lower quartile has ranged from an expected income decline of 1.7 per cent to expected growth of 4.5 per cent. The distance between the lower and upper quartiles provides a measure of the dispersion in expectations. Data on Danes' expectations regarding developments in their income are available here (link).
Income expectations vary across the life cycle
The statistics can be broken down by various population characteristics. One example is age, where responses can be grouped into three categories: those aged 18-39, those aged 40-59, and those aged 60 and above.
There are clear differences in the income growth expected by each age group. This partly reflects the fact that wage growth often varies over the course of working life. Younger Danes generally expect the highest income growth. This is reflected in the median for the youngest age group, which has fluctuated between approximately 3 and 4.5 per cent since October 2024. People aged 40-59 expect a more moderate and stable increase of around 2 per cent, while the oldest age group generally expects the lowest income growth and has, during certain periods since 2024, even expected a decline in income.
Younger Danes expect the highest income growth
Note:
The chart shows the median, lower quartile and upper quartile for the indicator “Expected change in own income (next 12 months)” from table DNNFU1 in the Statistics Database. Find the data here (link).
About Danmarks Nationalbank's Expectations Survey
In Danmarks Nationalbank's Expectations Survey, a sample of residents in Denmark is invited each month to answer a range of questions about their expectations regarding the economy, including income, inflation, interest rates, consumption and house prices.
Read more about why Danmarks Nationalbank asks Danes about their expectations here (link).
The results of the survey are published as aggregated statistics in the StatBank (link), thereby contributing to public knowledge about expectation formation. People's expectations about the future influence how they spend, borrow and invest money.
The figures in the statistics reflect the expectations of Danish residents, not Danmarks Nationalbank's forecast.
Each table in the StatBank contains data for overall expectations as well as four separate breakdowns of the population. These breakdowns are created by linking survey responses with register data from Statistics Denmark. The four breakdowns are age, income, gender and region.
In connection with the launch of the new statistics, Danmarks Nationalbank will publish a series of Statistical News releases before the end of the year, introducing each of the five new tables. This Statistical News release introduces the table on income expectations (link).