Decline in funds

In 2022, Danish households lost kr. 108 billion on their investments in funds corresponding to a return of -13.7 per cent. At the same time, they purchased significantly fewer investment certificates than in 2020-2021. The households’ assets in investment funds now amount to kr. 511 billion, where it was kr. 616 billion at the beginning of 2022.

Opening of 2.25 per cent bullet loan 2033

On 8 February 2023, 2.25 per cent bullet loan 2033 (ISIN: DK0009924532) will be opened with interest payment date 15 November and repayment 15 November 2033. The new bond will replace 0.00 per cent bullet loan 2031 as key on-the-run issue. After this the central government can conduct buy-backs in 0.00 per cent bullet loan 2031.

Housing wealth and consumption during Covid-19

House prices increased considerably in Denmark during the pandemic, while consumption remained moderate. The marginal propensity to consume out of changes in housing wealth was modest in the years leading up to the pandemic. The largest housing wealth gains during the pandemic occurred among household segments with relatively low marginal propensities to consume.

Assistant Governor Thomas Harr's presentation at The Danish Association of the Pharmaceutical Industry's new year's banquet

On 20 January, Assistant Governor Thomas Harr gave a presentation at The Danish Association of the Pharmaceutical Industry’s (Lif’s) new year’s banquet about perspectives on the Danish economy. In the presentation he argues that the Danish economy is facing a slowdown, but the economy is robust (the presentation is in Danish only).

Christian Kettel Thomsen appointed as Chairman of The Board of Governors

​Christian Kettel Thomsen has been appointed as Governor by Royal Appointment and Chairman of the Board of Governors.

Faroese economy - Economic upturn and growing reform needs

The Faroe Islands are experiencing an economic upturn with high fish prices, high employment and low unemployment. Despite the cyclical tailwinds, public finances are showing a deficit. The proportion of working-age adults will decline in the future, which increases the need for economically sustainable reforms

Decrease in loan demand from private customers

In Danmarks Nationalbank’s lending survey for the 4th quarter 2022, 16 of the 19 largest banks and mortgage institutions report that loan demand from private customers has decreased. In the 3rd quarter 2022 slightly more than half of the 19 institutes experienced decreasing demand from private customers. This means that the lower demand is now more prevalent among the institutes.

Open invitation to TIBER provider event

The TIBER-DK Cyber Team (TCT) cordially invites providers of Threat Intelligence (TI) and Red Team (RT) services to a provider event on 31 January. The meeting will focus on how both TI and RT can create the highest possible degree of learning and value via deliverables in TIBER-DK. Discussions and experience sharing will be facilitated. The initiative reflects the TCT’s wishes to strengthen the crucial dialogue with and between TI and RT providers.

Danmarks Nationalbank publishes Monetary History of Denmark 2005-2020

​Today, Danmarks Nationalbank is publishing the seventh volume in its Monetary History of Denmark series (in Danish - an English version will be available later).

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, December 2022

​In December 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve increased by kr. 10.3 billion to kr. 587.4 billion. For settlement in December, Danmarks Nationalbank's net purchase of foreign exchange due to intervention in the foreign-exchange market amounted to kr. 5.8 billion.

Central government borrowing strategy 2023

The government bond issuance target is set at kr. 65 billion in 2023. The focus will primarily be on issuances in the 2-year and 10-year nominal maturity segments. In February 2023, a new 10-year nominal bond will be opened. In the second half of the year, a new 10-year green bond will also be opened. In 2023, the central government expects to issue a foreign currency bond under the EMTN programme.

Do banks manage their flood risk exposures? Evidence from the Danish credit registry

Some regional banks are highly exposed to flood risk. Yet, there is little evidence that banks manage these exposures. The lack of flood risk management in these banks could worsen the adverse local economic impact of a flood. Therefore, banks should incorporate flood risk in their risk management.

Slowdown in homeowners’ mortgage debt

At the end of November, Danish homeowners had mortgage debt of kr. 1,799 billion, which is 0.31 per cent (kr. 5.6 billion) less than a year ago. It is the first time since 1994 that the year-on-year development in homeowners’ mortgage debt has been negative.

Interest rate increase

​Danmarks Nationalbank raises the current-account rate, the rate of interest on certificates of deposit, the lending rate and the discount rate by 0.50 percentage point with effect from 16 December 2022.

Significantly higher turnover in kroner and larger Danish foreign exchange market

Global trade in kroner has increased significantly, and the Danish foreign exchange market has grown. A daily turnover of kr. 378 billion is generated globally, which is 36 per cent up on 2019. Total global turnover in all currencies has also increased. In Denmark, a daily turnover of kr. 571 billion is generated in all currencies, which is 22 per cent up on 2019. Increased volatility in the financial markets has contributed to the increase in turnover. This is shown by the Triennial Survey of the Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Markets conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in collaboration with a number of central banks worldwide, including Danmarks Nationalbank.

Negative pension returns of kr. 741 billion

Overall, the insurance and pension sector has had a loss of kr. 741 billion on their 9nvestments in the first three quarters of 2022. In comparison, the return was kr. 1,027 billion combined in the three previous years 2019-2021, which, overall, were years of large share price increases. The negative return has been driven by falling prices on the financial markets on the basis of, among other things, increased inflation and rising interest rates. The pension assets were kr. 4,070 billion in September 2022.

Governor Lars Rohde's speech at the Annual Meeting of Finance Denmark

On 5 December, Governor Lars Rohde gave a speech at the Annual Meeting of Finance Denmark. The speech focused on liquidity, economic dampening and a look back.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, November 2022

​In November 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve increased by kr. 13.5 billion to kr. 577.2 billion. For settlement in November, Danmarks Nationalbank's net purchase of foreign exchange due to intervention in the foreign-exchange market amounted to kr. 3.7 billion.

Financial stability - Turbulent times call for a focus on risk management

The financial markets are characterised by high inflation, higher interest rates and considerable volatility. Higher interest rates, high inflation and the prevalence of risky loan types, combined with declining property prices, will lead to credit losses in banks. The weaker economic outlook underlines the need for prudence in the institutions’ capital planning.

Turbulent times call for focus on risk management in financial sector

These are turbulent times with considerable market fluctuations, high inflation and higher interest rates. This calls for strong liquidity management throughout the financial sector, according to a new analysis from Danmarks Nationalbank.

Fewer fixed-rate mortgage bonds

The market value of 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds fell steadily up until October this year. There are several reasons for this: The price of the bonds fell in connection with increasing market rates, while the redemption of low-yield bonds has exceeded the issuance of high-yield bonds.

Growth in business lending

The banks’ lending to Danish businesses has been increasing and has increased by 20.1 per cent over the past year to kr. 521.6 billion. However, this year-on-year growth rate has slowed slightly since Au-gust, when it peaked at a whopping 27.9 per cent. This is the highest year-on-year growth for bank lending to businesses in recent times. Before this, the highest measured growth rate was 26.6 per cent in July 2006.

The Greenlandic economy - Pressure on the economy and growing need for reform

Greenland has a booming economy and a marked need for foreign labour. Price increases remain modest due to the country’s special energy infrastructure. Although the Greenlandic economy is doing well, the Greenlandic politicians need to address a number of major challenges if growth is to continue. Fiscal policy is clearly unsustainable in the longer term and, in future, public expenditure cannot be funded under the current taxation rules. There is a growing need for reform of, e.g., the tax system and the education system.

Governor Lars Rohde's speech at the Danish Chamber of Commerce

On 23 November, Governor Lars Rohde held a presentation at The Danish Chamber of Commerce. In his presentation, he gave his view on the current economic situation. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Evaluating the macroprudential stance in a growth-at-risk framework

The ultimate objective of macroprudential policy is to contribute to financial stability by curbing the build-up of systemic risks and alleviating negative outcomes for the economy should risks materialize . Measuring and communicating whether policy goals are achieved is challenging, as financial crises are rare and risks are often only measurable in case they materialize. The memo outlines how growth-at-risk can be used to illustrate the objectives of macroprudential policy.

Issuance of 2-year euro bond

On November 9, the government issued a euro bond maturing on No-vember 18 2024. The bond was issued as a bullet bond with a coupon of 2.50 percent. In total euro 1.5 billion was issued. The issuance process and the composition of the investors can be seen in the attached press release. By continuously issuing in the EMTN programme, the program is kept active and thus forms part of the central government’s and Danmarks Nationalbank's liquidity reserve. The issuance also contributes to ensuring that everything in the issuance process functions as it should, and that the government maintains a strong and diversified market access in foreign currency funding.

Effects of borrower-based regulation on housing demand

Borrower-based regulation, influencing housing buyers’ access to credit, would have different effects depending on buyer’s demographics, wealth and location. By modelling housing buyers’ preferences and budget constraints, we find that any such regulation would push demand to suburban areas. Limits on debt-to-income ratios (DTI) would mainly affect buyers in the largest cities; however, we find that the restrictions would not affect net demand for small apartments in Copenhagen.

Governor Lars Rohde's speech at The Danish Property Federation

On 3 November, Governor Lars Rohde held a presentation at The Danish Property Federation. At the meeting, he presented his view on the Danish economy and the housing market. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Conference marking Denmarks 40 year fixed exchange rate regime

On 31 October, Danmarks Nationalbank hosted a conference marking Denmarks 40 year fixed exchange rate regime. The speakers at the conference were Governor Lars Rohde, Governor Per Callesen, Governor Signe Krogstrup, former Governor Bodil Nyboe Andersen, former Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, Professor Barry Eichengreen, Governor at Norges Bank Ida Wolden Bache, Governor at Sveriges Riksbank Stefan Ingves and Member of the ECB's Executive Board Philip Lane.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, October 2022

​In October 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve increased by kr. 9.4 billion to kr. 563.6 billion. For settlement in October, Danmarks Nationalbank's net purchase of foreign exchange due to intervention in the foreign-exchange market amounted to kr. 22.3 billion.

Assistant Governor Thomas Harr’s presentation at the University of Copenhagen

On 2 November, Assistant Governor Thomas Harr gave a presentation at the Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, on inflation. In the presentation, he argues how different economic theories may be used to understand the current high inflation, and how they can be used to analyze the future forces of inflation.

Governor Signe Krogstrup’s speech at Danmarks Nationalbank conference marking the 40th anniversary of the Danish fixed exchange rate regime

On 31 October, Governor Signe Krogstrup gave a speech at the Danmarks Nationalbank conference marking the 40th anniversary of the Danish fixed exchange rate regime. The speech summarized some key takeaways from the conference and discussed the current situation of high inflation and how we address inflation in a fixed exchange rate regime. Signe Krogstrup finished with some considerations about why the peg will continue to be an important pillar in Danish macroeconomic policy in the future.

Governor Lars Rohde’s speech at Danmarks Nationalbank conference marking the 40th anniversary of the Danish fixed exchange rate regime

On 31 October, Governor Lars Rohde gave a speech at the Danmarks Nationalbank conference marking the 40th anniversary of the Danish fixed exchange rate regime. The speech focused on the history of the fixed exchange rate regime. A regime which has withstood the test of time and contributed to the transformation of the Danish economy from a fragile economy in the early 1980s to the strong economy that we know today.

Record sales of foreign equities

Since October 2021, Danish investors have sold foreign equities for kr. 100 billion. The highest number of sales were made in September, when foreign equities were sold for a total of kr. 28 billion. The sales were made during a period in which equity prices have generally fallen.

Interest rate increase

Danmarks Nationalbank raises the current-account rate, the rate of interest on certificates of deposit, the lending rate and the discount rate by 0.60 percentage point with effect from 28 October 2022.

Monetary and fiscal policy in Denmark

The primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain low and stable inflation. In Denmark the objective is achieved by pegging the Danish krone to the euro. This entails that Danish monetary policy tracks the monetary policy conducted by the European Central Bank. To the extent that developments in the Danish economy deviate from the euro area, domestic fiscal policy can be used as a tool for stabilisation.

Positive interest rate on private customers’ deposits

The Danes’ deposits had an interest rate of 0.17 per cent in average in September and is thus positive for the first time since January 2021. The increase in the interest rate in deposits happens in the wake of Danmarks Nationalbank’s increase in interest rates over the last months. This have lead banks to gradually remove negative interest rates on private customers’ deposits.

Labour scarcity in Denmark: What role do foreign recruitments play?

This Economic Memo examines the role of international recruitments in the Danish labour market. It shows that while only a small share of new recruitments has tended to come from abroad, foreign labour has contributed markedly to employment growth in Denmark. Looking forward, Danish firms still appear to have the option of recruiting workers from abroad.

Stable turnover on the unsecured money market

The banks' mutual unsecured deposits in kroner were DKK 4 billion per day on average in the 2nd quarter. This is the same level as last year. The figure appears from Danmarks Nationalbank's annual money market survey, which includes the banks' mutual money market and interest rate derivatives transactions in the 2nd quarter.

Danmarks Nationalbank's comments on the Danish Economic Council's discussion paper, autumn 2022

Danmarks Nationalbank's comments on the Danish Economic Council's discussion paper, autumn 2022.

Stricter requirements for private customers’ economy

In Danmarks Nationalbank’s lending survey, 8 of the credit managers in the 16 surveyed large and medium-sized banks say that they have tightened their credit standards for private customers in the 3rd quarter of 2022. The tightening must be seen in light of the fact that 5 out of the 8 banks also tightened their credit standards in the 2nd quarter. The majority of the surveyed banks also expect to tighten the credit standards in the 4th quarter.

Working Paper: Walking the talk? Firm emissions and disclosure during the third phase of the EU emissions trading system

This study documents trends in emissions and emissions reporting for a sample of 141 large firms that were active within the EU Emissions Trading System during 2013–2019. Using text from annual reports, I document a rising share of information related to emissions. However, my measure of emissions talk is generally not predictive of past or future changes in firm emissions.

Corporate climate communication is not associated with fewer emissions

Companies are communicating more and more about efforts aimed at reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. However, there is no correlation between how much companies communicate about their emissions and the actual change in their emissions. This is one of the main findings in a new working paper.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, September 2022

In September 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve increased by kr. 22.4 billion to kr. 554.2 billion. For settlement in September, Danmarks Nationalbank's net purchase of foreign exchange due to intervention in the foreign-exchange market amounted to kr. 23.0 billion.

New Head of Banking and Markets in Danmarks Nationalbank

Inequality and savings

This memo studies the impact of demographic shifts and income inequality on the evolution of savings rates in Denmark, and compares with evidence from the US. Income inequality has followed similar trends in Denmark as in the US, and savings rates vary in a similar way over the life cycle and along the income distribution in the two countries. Changes in savings behavior play an important role for the evolution of total savings.

Status on the Danish economy, green government bonds and responsible investing of the FX reserve

On 29 September 2022, Governor Signe Krogstrup gave a presentation at Nykredit Capital Markets Day. She spoke about the latest inflation development and monetary policy response as well as Danmarks Nationalbank’s experience with issuing green government bonds and responsible investing of the FX reserve.

Large regional differences in loan-to-value ratios

Loan-to-value ratios for Danes' homes (sum of bank and mortgage loans relative to the value of the home) vary considerably across the country. The loan-to-value ratio is a measure of how exposed homeowners are to falling prices in the housing market.

Governor Per Callesen's speech at Nykredit Capital Markets Day for Banks 2022

On September 28, Governor Per Callesen held a presentation at Nykredit Capital Markets Day 2022. He presented the recent development and risks on the Danish housing market and gave his assessment of the effect on the first-year payment for different reforms (The presentation is in Danish only).

Foreign countries hold fewer Danish mortgage bonds

This year, foreign investors have net sold 30-year Danish convertible mortgage bonds for kr. 55 billion. The foreign share of ownership has thus fallen from 38.1 per cent in January to 36.1 per cent in August. The value of the 30-year bonds fell by kr. 87 billion in the same period, e.g. due to conversion of mortgage loans.

Assistant Governor Thomas Harr's speech for Finansforeningen

On 27 September, Assistant Governor Thomas Harr gave a presentation for Finansforeningen on the subject of inflation. In the presentation, he argues why inflation is likely to remain high short-term, why inflation will drop medium-term and why there are substantial differences to the situation in the 1970s. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Energy renovations of houses will pay for themselves by the heating bill – not by the sales price

The majority of energy renovations of houses cost more than they increase the sales price. This holds particularly in the metropolitan area and Aarhus, but also in a number of rural areas. Renovations that increase the sales price more than the renovation costs reduce CO2 emissions only marginally and are typically only possible for houses in and around the medium to large towns and more generally in the geographically more central parts of the country. (Memo available in Danish only).

Working Paper: Opportunities and risks in the residential sector during a green transition: House prices, energy renovations and rising energy prices

Higher energy prices reduce sales prices of houses without district heating in some rural areas. Most energy renovations do not increase sales prices beyond their costs. Those that do have little impact on CO2 emissions, are cheap, and are typically only possible for houses located in and around towns and mid-sized cities and more generally in the geographically more central parts of Denmark.

Outlook for the Danish economy - The pressure on the economy should be eased

Inflation is at 40-year high, and central banks across the world are currently tightening monetary policy. Together, these factors are dampening growth prospects for the Danish and international economies for the coming years. However, the combination of high inflation and a very tight Danish labour market carries the risk of self-reinforcing wage and price increases. Therefore, fiscal policy should help reduce the demand pressure as quickly as possible.

Inflation must be tamed

​Gas, electricity and food prices have risen significantly. This is contributing to current inflation reaching a 40-year high in Denmark and many other places in the world. Danmarks Nationalbank's new projection for the Danish economy estimates that inflation will be 8.6 per cent this year, 4.3 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2024.

Monetary and financial trends - Tighter monetary policy has made financing more expensive

High inflation and rising inflation expectations have brought about a need to tighten monetary policy for central banks worldwide. Danmarks Nationalbank has followed the ECB's interest rate hikes in accordance with the fixed exchange rate policy. The tightening of monetary policy and developments in the financial markets have increased loan rates for Danish households and companies.

Working Paper: What do negative policy rate economies have in common?

Five economies, Denmark, the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan, have conducted negative interest rate policies. In this paper, we document that these economies have high levels of public as well as private savings, not matched by high investments, relative to other high-income non-NIRP OECD economies.

Governor Per Callesen’s speech at Human House and Business Fredericia

On 15 September, Governor Per Callesen held a presentation at Human House and Business Fredericia. In his presentation, he gave his view on the Danish economy and which driving forces that will affect the economy in the short and long term. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Interest rate increase

​Danmarks Nationalbank raises the current-account rate, the rate of interest on certificates of deposit and the lending rate by 0.75 percentage point with effect from 9 September 2022. In addition, the discount rate is raised by 0.65 percentage point.

Governor Signe Krogstrup's speech at Finance Denmark's Director Conference 2022

On 5 September, Governor Signe Krogstrup held a presentation at Finance Denmark’s Director Conference 2022. She gave her view on some of the global challenges we face, both today and in the longer term. She zoomed in on the latest inflation development and the monetary policy response, before giving some remarks on the development of the Danish economy. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Unlisted shares have outperformed listed this year

In the second quarter of 2022, the insurance and pension fund sector has had a return of 1 per cent on its unlisted shares. At the same time, the sector has lost 10 per cent on its listed shares. Unlisted shares account for 50 per cent of the sector’s total investment in shares and other equity.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, August 2022

​In August 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve decreased by kr. 1.6 billion to kr. 531.7 billion.

Governor Lars Rohde retires

(Mis)matching in the post-pandemic Danish labour market

Since the beginning of the pandemic, matching in the Danish labour market seems to have become less efficient: a given number of job seekers and vacancies result in fewer matches than previously. This economic memo studies mismatch between job seekers and vacancies as a potential explanation. Mismatch was an important driver during the great financial crisis, but much less so during the pandemic.

Assistant Governor Thomas Harr's speech at Danske Asset Management's client seminar

On 1 September, Assistant Governor Thomas Harr gave a presentation for Danske Asset Management’s clients on the subject of inflation. In the presentation, he argues why inflation is currently so high in the US, the euro area and Denmark and where it is heading. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Regulatory adjustments are to contribute to more effective capital buffers

The interaction between requirements limits capital buffer usability in Denmark. Financial regulation should therefore be adjusted, so that banks are not allowed to use the same capital to meet both capital buffer requirements and other requirements at the same time. This will improve the usability of capital buffers.

Still potential of loan conversion

In 2022, many borrowers have used the higher interest rates and thus lower prices on the underlying bonds to convert their fixed-rate mortgages. One reason for this is to cut a chunk of their remaining debt.

Working Paper: Segmentation of the Housing Market with Internet Data: Evidence from Denmark

In this paper, we introduce a novel tool for housing market analysis developed on the basis of online listings data from the largest real estate listing site in Denmark. The tool uses a combination of machine learning techniques to provide a data-driven segmentation of the housing market into meaningful submarkets that differ from administrative classifications. We demonstrate how the tool can support monitoring and research of underlying housing market developments in Denmark.

Opening of 0.10 per cent inflation-linked bullet loan 2034

On 14 September 2022, 0.10 per cent inflation-linked government bond with maturity on 15 November 2034 will be opened (ISIN: DK0009924458). The government bond will be linked to the Danish consumer price index, CPI. The new bond will replace the 0.10 per cent inflation-linked bond 2030 as key on-the-run issue. After this the central government can conduct buy-backs in 0.10 per cent inflation-linked bullet loan 2030.

The rise in cash holdings of Danish companies

We show that the cash holdings of a typical Danish company have increased after the 2007/08 financial crisis. Especially the cash holdings of small companies have seen a strong increase. The increase in cash holdings coincides with a decrease in the use of loan financing for the typical company, which suggests a decrease in loan demand or supply to these companies. The development of cash holdings is also driven by a strong selection effect: companies with low cash holdings have been especially likely to exit during and after the financial crisis.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, July 2022

​In July 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve decreased by kr. 0.5 billion to kr. 533.4 billion.

Interest rate increase

​Danmarks Nationalbank raises the current-account rate, the rate of interest on certificates of deposit and the lending rate by 0.50 percentage point with effect from 22 July 2022.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, June 2022

​In June 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve decreased by kr. 0.2 billion to kr. 533.8 billion.

Danes’ financial wealth decreased by kr. 183 bn.

The Danes’ financial wealth, which is the difference between financial assets and debt, fell by kr. 183 billion in 1st quarter. This corresponds to a reduction of kr. 66 thousand for an average household. The decline comes after almost two years of economic upturn on the financial markets. Since 1st quarter 2020 the financial wealth has increased by kr. 2,409 billion.

The market for green bonds is booming

Since the first green bond was issued in Denmark in 2015, the market has risen to kr. 169 billion as of May 2022.

Steep increase in interest rates on new mortgages

The interest rate on the Danes’ new mortgage loans has increased. The average interest rate on mortgage loans disbursed in May is 1.99 per cent (excl. administration fee). The interest rate has more than doubled since the beginning of the year where new loans were disbursed at 0.88 per cent. The development reflects large interest rate increases, which have defined the first five months of 2022.

New types of digital money

The money we currently use in Denmark is well-functioning, and new types of digital money are likely to gain a foothold if they offer benefits for citizens and society. Danmarks Nationalbank is working to ensure access to secure and efficient money and payment solutions that are available to the whole society, also in the future. This applies regardless of the solution, provider or technology that may form the basis of new types of digital money.

Governor Signe Krogstrup's presentation on FRIC'22 Conference on Financial Frictions at CBS

On 10 June 2022, Danmarks Nationalbank Governor Signe Krogstrup gave a presentation on the FRIC'22 Conference on Financial Frictions at CBS. Signe Krogstrup touched upon the topics of climate change and green government bonds.

Financial stability - Rising interest rates and prices can challenge banks’ customers

Housing lending is still driven by loans with deferred amortisation, and variable interest rate have become more prevalent. An amortisation requirement for homeowners with a high loan-to-value ratio may contribute to a more resilient housing market. The ability of some companies to service their debt is put under pressure by higher energy and commodity prices and an interest rate hike. (Appendix 1 has been revised 16. June 2022).

Rising interest rates and prices can challenge banks' customers

Central government borrowing strategy in the 2nd half of 2022

The target for sales of domestic government bonds and short-term loan programmes in 2022 is kept at kr. 65 billion and kr. 35 billion, respectively. The on-the-run issues remain unchanged and focus will continue to be on issuance in the 2-year and 10-year nominal bonds including the green bond. In September, a new inflation-linked government bond will open.

Rising interest rates result in value losses

The value of the insurance and pension fund sector’s investments fell by kr. 273 billion in the first quarter of 2022. This is a larger loss than in the first quarter of 2020, which marked the start of the corona crisis. The losses in the first quarter of 2022 are primarily attributable to rising interest rates, while the market value loss during the corona crisis was largely driven by significant stock market declines.

Governor Signe Krogstrup's presentation to Danish institutional customers at Nordea

On 2 June 2022, Danmarks Nationalbank Governor Signe Krogstrup gave a presentation to Danish institutional customers at Nordea on the current situation in the Danish economy. In addition, she touched on current issues in the financial sector, including the green transition and the development of digital currencies. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, May 2022

​In May 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve decreased by kr. 1.1 billion to kr. 534.0 billion.

Explaining the Danish-German sovereign yield spread

This economic memo investigates the drivers of the Danish-German 10-year yield spread, which has widened 25 basis points since January 2020. The widening is found to be driven mainly by larger collateral scarcity of German sovereign bonds due to the ECB’s significant bond purchases and a substantial increase in duration on callable Danish mortgage bonds.

Fewer mortgage bonds with low interest rates

From January to April, there has been a reduction in the value of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with low interest rates as a result of a significant rise in the market interest rates, which has given borrowers an opportunity to cut a part of their outstanding debt by converting to a new mortgage loan with a higher interest rate. Thus, the value of 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds with an interest rate of 1.5 percent or less has fallen by kr. 95 billion. The value of bonds with a higher interest rate has increased by kr. 79 billion, corresponding to a net decrease in the total value of 30-year bonds of kr. 16 billion.

Every third opt out fixed-rate on conversion

39,400 homeowners with fixed-rate mortgage loans have used the opportunity for conversion created by rising interest rate in the first quarter of 2022. In total, converted mortgage loans amounts to kr. 51 billion. At the end of 1st quarter, 779,000 homeowners had a convertible mortgage loan with a coupon up to 1.5 per cent amounting to kr. 717 billion.

Lars Mayland Nielsen is leaving Danmarks Nationalbank to become CEO of LD Pensions

Assistant Governor Thomas Harr's speech at AP Pension's board and member meeting

On 24 May, Assistant Governor Thomas Harr gave a presentation for AP Pension on the subject of inflation. In the presentation, he argued why we expect that core inflation in Denmark will rise this year. He also explained why we expect that inflation will fall next year. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Working Paper: Wage Effects of Labor Market Tightness

In this Working Paper, I examine to what extent labor shortage leads to higher wages. If the shortage of the occupations demanded by a firm increases, wages will increase, too. The wages increases are, however, relatively modest.

Governor Per Callesen’s speech at the annual meeting of the Association of Local Banks, Savings Banks and Cooperative Banks in Denmark

On 19 May 2022, Danmarks Nationalbank Governor Per Callesen gave a speech at the Local Banks' annual meeting on the housing market, inflation and capacity pressure. In addition, he touched on a number of current topics in the financial sector, including payments and cybersecurity. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Record dividends from investment funds

In the first quarter of 2022, private Danish investors received record dividends of kr. 19 billion from investment funds. The large dividends are related to large price increases in the financial markets last year. Dividends are mainly paid in the first quarter and predominantly in February.

Oversight of the financial infrastructure 2021

The report presents the conclusions of Danmarks Nationalbank’s oversight of the Danish payments infrastructure in 2021. The core payment and settlement systems and the key payment solutions extensively comply with international standards for safety and efficiency. Work is being done across the sector to strengthen cyber resilience. Changes in the risk outlook, including new derived risks, mean that this resilience must be continuously developed.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, April 2022

​In April 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve decreased by kr. 0.6 billion to kr. 535.1 billion.

Large dividend payments to foreign investors

Foreign investors received historically large dividend payments in March of kr. 31 billion from Danish listed companies. In March alone, dividend payments were on a par with the total annual dividends in previous years. Dividend payments are made mainly in March, but dividends are also paid out in other months. Since 2015, dividend payments to foreign investors in other months have been kr. 10-17 billion.

Decrease in the value of fixed-rate mortgage bonds

At the end of March, the market value of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds was kr. 134 billion lower than the nominal value. This means that borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages may potentially cut the outstanding debt by kr. 134 billion or 11 percent when refinancing their mortgage.

Looking beyond the impact of energy prices: What drives trend inflation in Denmark?

Before the pandemic, wage and price inflation remained low in Denmark and other advanced economies, despite falling unemployment rates. We attribute the subdued inflation to low competition among firms to hire employed workers. This same force may continue to constrain inflation once the current rise in energy and commodity prices has been passed through to consumer prices.

Record-breaking card turnover in 1st quarter of 2022

Despite the fact that Denmark was partly locked down in January 2022, the card turnover in the 1st quarter of 2022 reached kr. 176.4 billion. This is a new record compared to the corresponding quarter in previous years. The card turnover in the 1st quarter of 2022 was 10.8 per cent higher than the previous record in the 1st quarter of 2019, which was not affected by corona restrictions.

Appetite for loans with variable interest rate

In recent months, Danish homeowners have moved their preferences towards mortgage loans with variable interest rate as opposed to loans with fixed interest rate. Danish homeowners’ new loans with variable interest rate in March was kr. 33.9 billion. When deducting kr. 18.5 billion in early redemption payments, new loans amounted to kr. 15.3 billion, which is the highest level of new loans net since fall 2011. Simultaneously, fixed-rate mortgage loans decreased net by kr. 6.6 billion. A net reduction in fixed-rate mortgage debt was last seen eight years ago, not taking instalments into account.

Governor Lars Rohde's presentation at the Greater Copenhagen summit

Governor Lars Rohde participated in the Greater Copenhagen summit on 27 April 2022, where he gave a presentation on the Danish and Swedish economy, including developments in the labor and housing market. In addition, he touched on the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and the expectations for the economic outlook. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Market concentration and the Danish rental market

This memo analyzes the evolution of firm ownership concentration in the private Danish rental market and its link to rental prices. We show that the overall increase in rental market concentration between 2010 and 2020 is mainly driven by the rental market in the Capital Region. Further, we document a positive empirical link between market concentration and rental prices.

Higher gas prices can lead to lower house prices in parts of Denmark

The price of natural gas has risen significantly since the summer of 2021. Higher heating costs may put downward pressure on homes heated with gas. Seen in isolation, the average price drop will be DKK 73,000 for a house with gas, if the gas price develops in line with the expectations of financial markets. (Memo available in Danish only).

A number of banks expect tighter credit standards

In Danmarks Nationalbank’s lending survey for 1st quarter 2022, 6 both large and medium-sized banks of the 16 surveyed report that they expect to tighten their credit standards for private customers from 1st to 2nd quarter 2022. The banks explain their responses by, among other things, their expectation of a weakening in the economic robustness of the private customers, including the risk of decreasing income after taxes and fixed expenses. The customers’ robustness is, among other things, affected by their expenses that increases following increasing interest rates and inflation driven by, among other things, increasing energy prices.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, March 2022

​In March 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve decreased by kr. 0.7 billion to kr. 535.7 billion.

Five suggestions for banks that want to use artificial intelligence

Banks and insurance and pension companies are increasingly developing systems that use artificial intelligence. This news outlines five suggestions from Danmarks Nationalbank’s data experts, which financial companies should have increased focus on in order to live up to both ethics and legislation when entering this area.

AI and machine learning in the financial sector: Five focus points

Artificial intelligence (AI) can improve the resiliency of both individual financial institutions and the financial sector as a whole. Yet, its users must balance benefits and risks of these technologies. This paper illustrates five focus points which financial institutions should consider when moving from traditional models to complex AI systems.

Denmark's IIP reached new heights in 2021

Denmark’s net international investment position (IIP) reached a record in the 4th quarter of 2021 with kr. 1,888 billion. The net IIP is the difference between Denmark's assets abroad and the foreign assets in Denmark, also called the liabilities. The value of both assets and liabilities increased significantly in 2021.

The interest rate on new mortgage loans has doubled

The interest rate on the Danes' new mortgage loans disbursed in February was on average 1.37 per cent (excl. administration fee). This is a doubling compared to the interest rate on the loans disbursed the year before. Most of this increase took place in the first two months of 2022 and continues into March. Although the interest rate on the new mortgage loans is higher, the average interest rate on the Danes' total mortgage loans remains very low, namely 0.76 per cent in February. The average interest rate has risen slightly since April 2021 due to the impact of the new loans (incl. conversions) and interest rate adjustments of existing loans.

Assistant Governor Thomas Harr's presentation for Finansforeningen (The Danish Finance Society)

On 17 March, Assistant Governor Thomas Harr gave a presentation for Finansforeningen on the subject of growth, inflation and economic policy in the light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the presentation, he argues that the war in Ukraine will have a significant impact on the Danish economy in the form of lower growth and higher inflation. (The presentation is in Danish only).

Outlook for the Danish economy - War in Ukraine dampens growth and increases inflation

War in Ukraine has in short time become a new and destabilising factor in Danish and global economy. It dampens growth and increase inflation at a time, when inflation and capacity utilisation is already high. Danish economy is in general robust and able to handle new challenges, and is expected to enter a pause in growth. However, there are risks of a fall in activity.

Monetary and financial trends - Rising inflation and Russian invasion have increased volatility

Rising inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have led to increased volatility in the financial markets over the past six months. Both short-term and long-term mortgage rates have increased significantly, and equity prices have fallen, leading to tighter financial conditions. (Released in Danish March, 16)

Russia's invasion of Ukraine means lower growth and higher inflation in Denmark

Danmarks Nationalbank assesses that the war will reduce GDP growth by approximately 1 percentage point and increase inflation by about 2 percentage points this year. In a new projection for the Danish economy, Danmarks Nationalbank concludes that, following gross domestic product growth of 4.1 per cent in 2021, GDP is expected to rise by 2.1 per cent this year and next year and by 1.7 per cent in 2024.

Annual Report 2021

Danmarks Nationalbank posted a profit of kr. 194 million in 2021 against a profit of kr. 1,616 million in 2020. Gold stock and equity exposure contributed significantly to the profit for the year.

Pressure on the labour market during the pandemic

The Danish labour market has tightened substantially during the recovery of the Danish economy. Pandemic-related labour demand can account for some of the employment growth. The majority of the movements on the labour market have occurred among marginal jobs, and cross-sectoral movements have been slightly higher than usual.

Governor Signe Krogstrup's discussion of fiscal policies for climate action at the annual conference of the European Fiscal Board

Governor Signe Krogstrup discussed how fiscal policy can ensure a net-zero transition. She described reasons for opposition to greenhouse gas taxation, as well as how central banks can contribute to the transition. The discussion took place on 25 February, 2022.

The use of cash in society

Danmarks Nationalbank has conducted a survey of the use of cash in Denmark. Danes are relying less and less on cash when paying for goods and services in stores, but cash is still used as a store of value and for person-to-person payments. For instance, more than one in three Danes hold cash savings.

Pension assets grew by kr. 1.000 billion in three years

The Danes’ pension assets reached kr. 4,460 billion in 2021. By the end of 2021, the assets had grown by kr. 1,011 billion over a three-year period, and the increase was mainly due to sizeable pension returns but also large pension contributions.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, February 2022

​In February 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve increased by kr. 5.7 billion to kr. 536.4 billion.

Foreign investors own 26 per cent of mortgage bonds

Foreign investors own Danish mortgage bonds for a total of kr. 827 billion in January 2022. This corresponds to 26 per cent of the total nominal value of kr. 3,218 billion. Over half – kr. 441 billion – of the foreign holdings of Danish mortgage bonds consists of 30-year fixed-rate bonds. Foreign investors contribute to a broad investor base and demand for Danish mortgage bonds, which has an impact on interest rates and thus homeowners' finances.

Companies borrow significantly more from the banks

With a growth of 12.6 per cent corresponding to kr. 54 billion, the past year has seen the largest increase in lending from the banks to Danish companies since 2008. Credit growth has accelerated since September after several years of subdued credit growth in the wake of the financial crisis and a decline in the months following the outbreak of covid-19. Bank lending to companies amounted to kr. 477 billion at the end of January 2022 and is thus approx. kr. 35 billion above the level before covid-19.

Denmark is among the most digitalised countries when it comes to payments

Danmarks Nationalbank has conducted a survey of the payment behaviour of Danish households. In Denmark, most payments in physical trade and person to person are digital. Digital behaviour is broadly anchored in the population, and the digital behaviour of senior citizens is a key element in making Denmark one of the most digitalised countries when it comes to payments.

Danmarks Nationalbank renews Statement of Commitment to FX Global Code

​Today all members of the ESCB, including Danmarks Nationalbank, have issued renewed Statements of Commitment to the Code.

Direct investment abroad sets a record

Danish direct equity investments abroad reached kr. 126 billion in 2021 which is its highest level so far. Direct investments in the form of group loans pulled in the opposite direction by kr. -39 billion, as intercompany loans were repaid to Denmark, or foreign companies lent money to Danish companies in the same group. In total, Danish direct investments abroad were kr. 87 billion in 2021, which is an increase of kr. 33 billion compared to 2020. At the global level, direct investments also increased in 2021.

Danish Government Borrowing and Debt 2021

A government budget surplus led to a decrease in central government debt by approximately kr. 100 billion to kr. 438 billion at the end of 2021, equal to just under 18 per cent of GDP. Central government debt, as a share of GDP, has thus fallen to its lowest level since 2009. Again in 2021, borrowing flexibility was crucial to the central government. The flexibility made it possible gradually to reduce issuances by the central government, in line with improvements in government finances.

The impact of digitalisation on Danish companies and workers

This memo explores the impact of digitalisation on Danish workers and companies. For this, we first build two complementary measures of digitalisation that leverage Danish administrative data. We then document a positive association between the level of digitalisation and sales of large companies. In the final part, we study the workers in the IT sector – the producers of the digital tools. We find that the workforce in the IT sector is more specialised than the rest of the Danish workforce, and that this specialisation has increased during the past decade.

Foreign Exchange and Liquidity and Monthly Balance Sheet, January 2022

​In January 2022, the foreign-exchange reserve decreased by kr. 4.4 billion to kr. 530.7 billion.

28 per cent return on global equity funds

Private Danish investors received an average return of 28 per cent on their investments in global equity funds in 2021. For comparison, the return on the widely used benchmark MSCI World was 31 per cent.